Curb Your Optimism

So one week ago in this space I posted my prior to attending Nats Opening Day at (as J-Red calls it) Really Freaking Krappy Stadium. I had the optimism that all baseball fans should have heading into Opening Day. Of course, optimism for the Nats is a little different, as my optimism included a 67-95 prediction... basically that we would not lose 100 games. Well a week has passed, and as Barry Svrluga discussed in yesterday's Post, it's not time to hit the panic button. But maybe at the very least it's time to re-examine my optimism as we head into the second week of the season:

THE MOST TELLING STAT:
As per Baseball Tonight, the Nationals have not held the lead in any one of their 260+ plate appearances this year, the only win in their 1-6 record coming on a Dmitri Young walk-off single. This single stat implicates our...

STARTING PITCHING:
John Patterson is not a #1 starter. Manny Acta told reporters not to describe him as an "ace," because he's not the prototypical "ace" of a pitching staff. But maybe it's time we realize that John is not a #1 starter either. I look 30 miles up 295 and I see four pitchers in a rotation that would all start ahead of Big John. I really like the guy, and when he is on, he has some filthy stuff. But he's been shelled in two starts this season and I worry about his confidence... as in does he really feel ready to be the guy people turn to every fifth day to stop a losing skid. About the only bright spot in the rotation has been Shaun Hill (not the former Terp QB for those confused). Matt Chico and Jason Bergmann are basically getting experience in the big leagues that they would be getting in Double-A for any other team. I just hope it doesn't shallack their confidence too much.

RUN PRODUCTION:
One of the reasons for my early optimism is I fell into the trap of looking at Spring Training results and seeing the Nats putting up a good number of runs against good teams. Of course, I realize now that I overlooked the fact that half of those pitchers who the Nats were putting up runs against are now in Lansing, Toledo, Quad Cities, and other minor league outposts. Looking back at our Spring Training results, we tended to do very poorly against opposing pitching that was actually of the Major League ilk. We have a handful of guys who can hit, but it doesn't do much good if nobody else is getting on base.

FAN SUPPORT:
I think that J-Red actually conceded that it's a little too early to be tough on Nats fans for having their three poorest showings at RFK since baseball has been back in the D-dot-C-dot. I lucked into gorgeous weather for Opening Day against the Marlins. However, the four games against the D-Backs were in freezing cold temperatures that would've been more appropriate for a 'Skins game at RFK. The Nats are simply not a team to justify sitting out in the freezing cold for three hours and freezing your nuts off. I will also discount the poor attendance at the third game of the Marlins series, a weekday afternoon game. Those are tough draws anyplace besides Wrigley and Fenway. What really troubled me was the total lack of attendance at the second game of the year, a gorgeous night game against the Marlins. Granted, it was Passover, and I was actually observing my people's exodus from Egypt (could that be compared to the Nats' exodus from Montreal... maybe fodder for another post?) But come on, there aren't that many observant Jews in D.C. to not even fill half of RFK for the second game of the year. This section is just going to be the fuel for J-Red's 20 comments about baseball failing in D.C. for a third time.

OWNERSHIP AND FRONT OFFICE:
Stan and Ted, we know you want us to look blindly towards 2008. However, there are still 74 home games left at RFK. The product that you're putting on the field you acknowledge isn't great. So can we please actually work with Aramark to train our concessions workers and make sure that there is enough bottled watter to make it through a game when it's 85 degrees in the sun. It couldn't have been that much of a surprise that 40K posted for Opening Day. Can we please work with our ticket takers so that they uniformly enforce the liberal policy on bringing in outside food? You promised to improve the gameday experience at RFK and made steps forward last year. You took two giant steps back in the first two series this year... not such a wise move when you openly acknowledge that people are most likely coming to RFK to see a loss.

Updated Prediction: 50-112