Comments on East Coast Bias: Nationals Park Half Full for New Stadium's SECOND ...

Here's a "modest proposal". Tell baseball owners ...

2008-04-12T20:29:34.955-04:00

Here's a "modest proposal". Tell baseball owners to pay for their own stadiums and make their own business decisions. I'll bet stadiums don't cost $611 million bucks when a private owner is paying the bill rather than a bunch of taxpayers.

Just admit it, the city got absolutely rooked. That team was in such bad states that it was playing home games in San Juan and entertaining offers from such no-hope candidates as Norfolk and Las Vegas. And from this dominating position the government of DC decided to pay full freight. Well done.

Strangely enough, Jack Evans (local government crook of the century), in this column, clearly states that he drew up plans to tax the federal government for the stadium, on the grounds that it wouldnt cost the DC taxpayer anything. Classy! http://www.georgetowner.com/coverfeature.shtml

In the end, your team sucks, your city sucks, and you have wasted hundreds of millions of dollars on a foolish entertainment project. Next time build a movie theater, its cheaper for everyone.

G-dub,In principle, I agree with you--baseball sho...

2008-04-11T15:02:05.459-04:00

G-dub,

In principle, I agree with you--baseball should pay for their own stadiums. But in practice, since the majority of cities in the past 20 years have built partly to mostly publicly funded stadiums, I'm not sure why or how Washington should be any different--especially because it had to give MLB a reason to come to the city. All I was saying is that it is extremely misleading to say that the money for the stadium is financed completely by D.C. residents, considering a good percentage of the attendance at the stadium is made up of Maryland and Virginia residents--and they're paying for the stadium too. Maybe not enough for your tastes, but still a solid percentage. Still seems like a better way to finance a stadium than the lottery money that went to the TWO publicly financed stadiums in Baltimore--considering lotteries are well known to attract mostly low-income customers.

As for your statement about D.C. raising the energy costs of everyone in the city to pay for the stadium, I have no idea what you're talking about. I believe some sort of energy tax may have been bandied about in the initial plans, but the tax on businesses is a gross receipts tax for businesses making more than $3 million.

Let's keep this going so it can reach 100 comments...

2008-04-10T11:58:36.671-04:00

Let's keep this going so it can reach 100 comments.

"Yes, We Can!"

Eric,Your spending does little good to Washington ...

2008-04-10T01:06:06.359-04:00

Eric,

Your spending does little good to Washington DC, or Maryland. This is a well known principle called the "substitution effect". You aren't going bowling, eating dinner, or seeing a movie at an existing facility in Washington DC. You are spending money at a ballpark. 90 percent goes to the team (essentially) and 10 percent goes to the city to pay off the bonds on the stadium (the accounting of which stretches credulity--and many cities now are paying MUCH higher interest rates due to problems in the bond markets, so assume the forecasting sucks). I would say the TEAM is a huge winner, and the city, at best, is surviving.

So you can't even call it a "tax" since none of this money is going to the city coffers. Its going right to the bank. I would say its rather unfair to other developers, etc, who don't get to count on massive subsidies to produce for-profit business complexes.

You also again, like most, fail to address the fact that every American is being charged because the city is charging higher energy fees explicitly to pay for the stadium. Did the rest of America get to vote on this? Or is this what we owe DC metro residents so they can exercise their "right" to watch mediocre baseball? WHY CAN"T BASEBALL PAY FOR ITS OWN STADIUMS?

So in summary, DC at best breaks even, and is probably in the long run losing money due to higher interest rates and energy costs. This will necessitate either a wider and deeper tax collection, a bailout from the feds, or both.

Meanwhile the Lerners and MLB get a free place to do business and enjoy massive asset price growth in their franchise plaything.

How come DC doesn't have a plan to build bowling alleys and movie theaters? Why is baseball different?

Lastly, Norfolk would never do well as a MLB city. Its another Tampa--large parts of the population have lower than average incomes and education levels. Few corporations to purchase luxury boxes and premium seats on a YEARLY basis (not just when the team wins). Its a much more expensive game being played than it was in 1977.

Jason likes young men who have disposable income. ...

2008-04-09T17:24:06.621-04:00

Jason likes young men who have disposable income. Just call him David Hernandez.

A few notes: I was at the Nat's game on Monday nig...

2008-04-09T14:13:57.318-04:00

A few notes:

I was at the Nat's game on Monday night, and it was FREEZING outside. Yes, the stadium was less than half full, but it's only April.

There was an NCAA National Championship game on TV the same night.

The Wiz and Caps both locked up playoff berths this week... people in DC aren't thinking of summer nights in the ball park yet.

On a positive note - I found it very easy (read as 25minutes door to gate) to get from my office in Rockville MD to the ball park. Beltway to GW Parkway to 395 to South Capitol Street were less than bumper to bumper.

With all of the new construction ongoing around the ball park I'm sure people will see this a stop after work, as they'll be living across the street / down the block / in the neighborhood.

Give it some time, people will come.

The military and tech presence in Norfolk is part ...

2008-04-09T14:13:14.428-04:00

The military and tech presence in Norfolk is part of why I thought a team could do well. There are a lot of young men with disposable income down there. A lot of D.C.-area people don't realize just how big Norfolk-Newport News-Hampton Roads-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach have become. Even the I-64 corridor down through tidewater is expanding.

we have a good mix of allegiances here. its a larg...

2008-04-09T13:53:56.778-04:00

we have a good mix of allegiances here. its a large military town, so we have people from all over the country either passing through on military duty, or staying and working in the civilian sector. me, for example, i grew up in the suburbs of boston. i'm a red sox fan first, but i'm also a baseball fan. i go to the Norfolk Tides games here, even if they're not playing the Paw Sox.

A similar city to look at here may be San Diego. I know its a bigger market, but they also have a high military presence. I would be interested to know how many people at Padres games are military.

Norfolk also has a decent airport, and runs planes to Baltimore, DC, Philly, Boston, Chicago, NY, etc every day. its a popular tourist area in the summer.

i really believe that the Nats could have survived in Norfolk. And i also believe that, just like the whole convoluted marlins/expos/red sox ownership fiasco, bud played politics instead of looking out for the long term good of the franchise

I made the point about allegiances. I didn't reali...

2008-04-09T13:44:25.432-04:00

I made the point about allegiances. I didn't realize the area supported the Mets. If you believe Ben though, fans instantly become a fan of the new team when their town gets their own team.

I, personally, felt Norfolk was a good place for the Expos. Better than Portland at least.

i have lived in norfolk for 12 years now(former na...

2008-04-09T13:40:44.184-04:00

i have lived in norfolk for 12 years now(former navy). the ownership group that was trying to put their bid together did a decent job and made a decent case.

they were ready to temporarily put the Nats in harbor park(current home of the norfolk tides, baltimore AAA). they had a deal in principle to give the Nats their own channel on Cox cable. And using census figures for the SE VA-NE NC area, this is the largest TV market in the US without a Major League franchise.

one of you pointed out that there are no allegiances here. that's untrue. seeing as the Tides were the Mets' AAA affiliate for 38 years(1969-2007), there are many Mets fans in the area. that would work out well for attendance, seeing as they are in the same division. Not to mention that this region is a hotbed for young baseball talent(Cuddyer, Wright, the Uptons, Verlander, etc, etc)

but lets not forget the most important thing here: what is the quality of the product? let's face it, these aren't the yankees or sox we're talking about.

To answer your last question, J-Red, I have no rea...

2008-04-09T13:08:23.314-04:00

To answer your last question, J-Red, I have no reason to believe the Nats arrival correlates with the lack of success from the O's.

The strongest correlation I saw was as the Expos became increasingly worse and it was imminent that they had to move, the noise in D.C. about a team got much louder.

The O's were contenders for basically three different seasons in my baseball watching lifetime (1986 to present). Let's not pretend they were always in the hunt until 2000.

I agree that Washington does not NEED a team in the same way that other cities do. But that does not mean it cannot support a team.

Ben: But you do agree that a team never comes to W...

2008-04-09T12:32:49.963-04:00

Ben: But you do agree that a team never comes to Washington if the Orioles remain as even viable playoff contenders?

Eric: Maybe I'm underinformed about the Senators' ownership situation because of my age and because I never witnessed the bitterness in D.C. that I saw in Baltimore. I think it ties in to my point earlier that in cities like Baltimore, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Cleveland having football and baseball is a huge point of civic pride. It's a symbol of good when things are going poorly. In Washington baseball is viewed as something the city is supposed to have because it is a major city. I never felt the hurt and longing that I saw in Baltimore.

J-Red, I'm more open to the distinctions you draw ...

2008-04-09T12:13:58.682-04:00

J-Red, I'm more open to the distinctions you draw than you believed I would be. However, you are also correct that I do not accept it as enough of a distinction to say it's okay for you to resent Cooke but not for me to resent Angelos, who would have kept the Nats out if he were able and handicapped them as much as possible instead (as is his right).

I also reject your notion that MoCo fans switched from the O's to the Nats to be trendy. As I already said, we identify more with D.C. than Baltimore, period. Some people switched, some people didn't. It obviously doesn't have to do with winning, as the Nats suck pretty bad.

The parallels between Bob Irsay moving the Colts a...

2008-04-09T12:09:48.976-04:00

The parallels between Bob Irsay moving the Colts and Calvin Griffith and Bob Short moving the Senators are obvious, and there's very little distinction. All three were greedy and wanted to make a buck. It had nothing to do with "indifference." If you want to argue that attendance for Senators games was lower than for some other teams at the same time, fine. In the final 26 years of the first Senators team, they had four winning seasons. Doesn't exactly inspire people to go to the ballpark. Under Short, they had the highest ticket prices in the league and still had a bad team. I would think someone familiar with Irsay would understand greedy owners, but I guess not.

G-Dub--I never said the stadium was "free" or that...

2008-04-09T11:56:22.498-04:00

G-Dub--

I never said the stadium was "free" or that the city was making a "profit," even though you imply that. I just think the deal isn't as bad for the city as many have claimed, particularly because the city implemented what is essentially a commuter tax (something the city council has broached in the past).

You say that commuter tax is a "small percentage of sales of merchandise" at the stadium will go to retire the bonds. Actually, it's 10 percent of every ticket and every food item sold. It's noted at every concession stand. And is it really that "small"? That seems like a pretty decent sized tax to me. And is that really hurting the business community in D.C.? If I hadn't been at the ballpark last Saturday night, I would have been spending my money in Maryland, where I live.

As for your skepticism about whether the ballpark will lead to economic development in the area, you're correct--there have been studies that show it doesn't help. But considering that the building of an arena for basketball and hockey--the Verizon Center--led to an incredible amount of economic development in a neighborhood a few Metro stops away from the where the stadium is, there's certainly precedent for something similar happening around Nationals Park.

Warren, every team gets a significant dropoff for ...

2008-04-09T11:50:29.315-04:00

Warren, every team gets a significant dropoff for Game 2, except when they open a brand new stadium. According to the Washington Post, the Nats' game two attendance is the lowest of any team opening a new stadium in the modern era. Going to Nationals Park is obviously not a must-do event in Washington. It's just somewhere on the list, along with the Caps, Wizards, United, cultural events, concerts, theater, museums, etc. People forget that the United are close to a fifth major sport in D.C. The new stadium is apparently just another option. That's not going to build a passionate fan base. If they remain bad and the novelty of the stadium wears off, where are the Nats going to fall on the priority of things Washingtonians could do on a weeknight?

We're not here to knock Detroit. Comerica is far more affordable than Nationals Park. I'm just saying that people in the Washington Metro area have more disposable income than pretty much any other metro area in the country.

Plus, work in Detroit is less stable than work in Washington. 92% of the population might be employed, but there's more of a saving mentality in Detroit than in Washington. Money is made for spending here. In the Detroit area, particularly for the auto industry, money must be saved for the unexpected.

The parallels between Cooke keeping a football tea...

2008-04-09T11:44:21.096-04:00

The parallels between Cooke keeping a football team out of Baltimore and Angelos keeping a baseball team out of Washington are obvious, and you're not going to like how I distinguish the two situations.

Robert Irsay, Sr., moved the Colts from Baltimore over a dispute with state officials and then-Mayor William Donald Schaefer in particular. He was an acerbic drunk who became furious that he could not strongarm the City and State into doing whatever he wanted. He used Indianapolis to leverage his demands and Baltimore called his bluff. Rather than back down, he picked up and left. Baltimore never stopped supporting the team (though attendance plummeted in the last year due to Elway's hold out and increasing anger with Irsay).

Washington, on the other hand, lost two MLB teams due to pure indifference. They then spent the ensuing 30 years, from 1971 until about 2001 indifferent to baseball. Then some opportunities opened up with some teams doing poorly and a handful of wealthy NoVa businessmen who always dreamed of owning a MLB team started trying to create the idea that Washington wanted a team. Unfortunately their financing fell through right after they got MLB's attention, so the Lerners and a couple other groups began making a play. When MLB bought the Expos from Jeffrey Loria, Angelos realized MLB was very serious about moving the team. Once it became obvious it was inevitable (games in Puerto Rico probably tipped him off) he dug in and made sure he extracted as much as possible from MLB.

So Baltimore had 13 years of bitter hatred towards Irsay, never adopted the Redskins (though some did adopt other teams, particularly the Steelers) and never stopped trying to get a new team by any means necessary (Bucs, Rams, etc. were all rumored to be definitely coming, and the Jax/Carolina expansion was purportedly a done deal). Washington had 30 years of mild nostalgia and half-hearted efforts here and there to obtain a team for vanity purposes.

There's certainly no indication that Angelos submarined multiple serious efforts to bring baseball to Washington, unless you count him saying "They're happy being Orioles fans!", which was pretty true until the last decade of mismanagement. The downturn of the Orioles is the only reason the tiny minority of Washingtonians wanting their own team turned into a lukewarm larger minority of Washingtonians wanting their own team. If anything, Nats fans need to thank Angelos. Washingtonians had a way out from Angelos, whereas true Orioles fans have to ride it out.

What exactly does this mean?:"Of course the obviou...

2008-04-09T11:44:06.702-04:00

What exactly does this mean?:

"Of course the obvious reason you can't compare Detroit to Washington is that a much larger proportion of Tigers' fans have to make serious budget decisions about going to a game. The Washington "fan base", to the extent it exists, doesn't have to make such hard choices."

I think that people outside of Michigan tend to think that 8% unemployment or whatever it is around here and the well-publicized economic problems we're facing means that everyone is flat broke, when indeed, 92% or so do have jobs. And it's not like Tigers games break your bank. The most plentiful walk-up tickets are $12 and if you don't mind walking a bit, lots of parking can be had for free-to-$6. Apparently 30,000 people in the area have enough money for season tickets, and we're already at 3 million tickets sold for the year before the first game is.... won.

PS - I was at that 2nd game at Comerica, and didn't understand why the 20,000 at Nats Park was an issue - doesn't every team outside of Boston and Wrigley get a dropoff for game 2?

"Ben: The Capitals never bent over backwards to ke...

2008-04-09T10:17:00.825-04:00

"Ben: The Capitals never bent over backwards to keep a football team out of Baltimore."

Really?

Now I look forward to your thoughts on how Angelos did not attempt to keep a baseball team out of Washington, as I heard from someone on this blog who goes by the name of J-Red that it is unacceptable to cite Angelos as a reason for turning from the O's to the Nats.

its absurd to say that those 3 "revenue streams" w...

2008-04-09T09:55:18.629-04:00

its absurd to say that those 3 "revenue streams" will come close to paying for the stadium.

The rent will not go toward principle or interest. The rent will primarily pay for stadium upkeep and operating costs.

A small proportion of sales of merchandise in the stadium will go to retire the bonds. Commerce lost to the business community outside the stadium, and not a "profit" for the city by any means.

I think the "business community" was a lot more divided than was reported in the WaPo and elsewhere. Your presumption is that the stadium will spur economic development. I still say this is an entirely unproven assumption (actually proven to be untrue!), particularly when you take into account that many urban areas have been upgraded without a stadium being built at public expense.

This stadium is not "free" by any means. It is widely supported by tax dollars, subsidies, and tax waivers not available to other businesses. Consider if that land had been used as an office park, an apartment complex. Would taxes be levied? Of course they would! Why should a stadium be any different?

This will be a mediocre baseball team for years and all the BS about civic pride, identity, etc will not count for much when your team is losing. A waste of money of the first order...

j-red: I agree with that. That is how we treat ou...

2008-04-09T09:44:24.667-04:00

j-red: I agree with that. That is how we treat our sports teams here. That is how you can explain constant Lions sell outs. So you would be better off to analyze the attendance trends of other DC teams to figure out how they treat their sports teams. Does DC support the Wizards, Caps and Skins? Is there a city that supports their basketball, hockey and football teams that do not support the baseball team? I have no idea. But if you did the research it will probably come down to the success of those teams.

Of course the obvious reason you can't compare Det...

2008-04-09T09:37:33.383-04:00

Of course the obvious reason you can't compare Detroit to Washington is that a much larger proportion of Tigers' fans have to make serious budget decisions about going to a game. The Washington "fan base", to the extent it exists, doesn't have to make such hard choices.

Ben: The Capitals never bent over backwards to kee...

2008-04-09T09:27:27.052-04:00

Ben: The Capitals never bent over backwards to keep a football team out of Baltimore.

The 25,000 thing is only a good benchmark when the stadium is brand new and the franchise is so young. You need people primed to care if they ever get good.

Eric Fingerhut: I've said before here that there's no way we can have any kind of informed argument over whether those taxes will net $611 to $700M in addition to the bond interest.

Tuna: I'm pretty familiar with Detroit due to an ex who was from Fraser (near St. Clair Shores). I don't know how applicable Detroit really is to Washington in many ways. Many industrial cities use sports to define their identity, especially Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Baltimore and others who have been through really tough times. Those people are more primed to latch on to sports because it lends respectability to a city whose reputation isn't sparkling. Washington doesn't have that problem, just like Miami doesn't. I think it leans more towards Miami than Detroit.

j-red, not sure if you know much about Detroit but...

2008-04-09T09:11:08.201-04:00

j-red, not sure if you know much about Detroit but the economy here is the worst it has been since who knows when. They ARE bearing the brunt of the economic downturn. Michigan is 50th out of 50 states right now in terms of economy. It doesn't matter. They will never not be able to support a baseball team.

They are more than likely going to surpass last year's attendance numbers (assuming they get on track) and last year they averaged 37,618 a game. And those are probably 80% suburbanites who also work (some downtown).

As far as a "stadium disaster", CoPa averaged 30,106 in their first year. Before the 2005 run out of nowhere, they averaged 22,749 a game (and the team sucked). In the last 5 years of Tiger Stadium they averaged 18,051.

So these numbers somewhat contradict what j-red said about a stadium disaster. I don't know whose argument I am supporting here, I just thought I would give you actual facts.

The point is that if a team sucks, people aren't going to go see it (see 1995-1998 Tigers). If you get a new stadium people will come for a couple years (see 2000-2001 Tigers). If you continue to suck they will stop coming (see 2002-2003 Tigers). And if you get good people will come back (see 2004-present Tigers). At least that is how it works in baseball town. If you want to see how it works in a non baseball town, see Miami. DC will probably be somewhere in between but more like Detroit I imagine.

Tigers' attendance

J-Red, I really like how you throw out the financi...

2008-04-09T02:30:59.749-04:00

J-Red, I really like how you throw out the financing of Comerica as though that has any relevance whatsoever to the discussion.

I also like how you noticed that teams generally get more attendance when the team is doing well (see Baltimore's recent history for another example). B-more is getting dangerously close to Detroit-like numbers from their 2004 and 2005 seasons.

So, I therefore like how you say it's a bad example, when it's actually a very reasonable example.

Your benchmark for unable to support a team seems to be about 25,000, and there are a handful of teams who have been treading in those waters for awhile. So they will be climbing all over each other to build a stadium in Portland with their private funds in the hopes of staying afloat. That would include, by the way, Cleveland, where the AL Central champs did not even get to 25,000.

And I like how you never answered why you succumbed to the lure of the Washington Capitals while resisting the Skins.