April 9, 2008

Betting the Masters

With Tiger a staggering favorite, here's a quick look at some of the good and bad bets that can be made for this year's Masters.

READ:
Tiger 1/1 to win
Phil 10/1 to win

REACT:
That means Tiger is 50/50 to win the tournament. Based on recent history, that seems generous to the field. On the other hand, there are 94 golfers in the field, and Tiger hasn't dominated at the Masters lately. Hold off for better choices.

Phil may not be as hot as Tiger, but he has won more Masters than Tiger lately. If you like Phil and think he can overcome the debacle at the US Open a couple years ago (no majors since), 10/1 is mighty generous for a two-time winner in the last four years.

READ:
Odds to Win the Masters (without Tiger Woods)

REACT:
You know you're good when Vegas has to exclude you from betting in order to get action. Pretty soon, we'll just give Tiger the trophy and then play the tournament to see who gets second. This brings Phil down to 6/1 if you were wondering.

READ:
Will Tiger lead after Day 1? 4/1

REACT:
Probably not. He's even admitted he doesn't go out and try to kill it on Thursday. It's all about conservative positioning. Look back at his win streak and see how many times he's led after Thursday. Bad bet.

READ:
How many bogeys or worse for Tiger? Over 11.5 ~3/4

REACT:
Apparently they're giving money away. This might sound like a bad bet since Tiger would have to bogey at least three holes a round. However, examination of Tiger's last four years at Augusta (including a victory in 2005 at -12) showed that he has been over 11.5 each of the past four years. Any sort of off week or bad conditions would make this a lock.

READ:
Tiger to win the Masters and the British Open 4/1

REACT:
If you thought the bet of Tiger to win the Masters at 1/1 was a great one, this pays a little better. However, be careful with the math. If Tiger's a 50% shot to win at both tournaments, he has a 25% chance to win both. That would mean 3/1. Add in the fact that the British Open is months away, could be played in a howling wind, and that Tiger can really struggle when the British isn't a St. Andrew's, and this bet is really dicey.

The last two winners in a playoff
READ:
Will there be a playoff? 9/4

REACT:
The playoffs in 2003 and 2005 were the first since 1989. There have been 13 playoffs in the Masters. Not such a good bet at 9/4 given how many years the Masters has been played, much better to take it the other way. If you're really think a playoff will happen, go ahead and take Tiger to win a playoff at 12/1.

All odds from bodoglife.com

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