Cheap Nationals Tickets!

The Partnership for Public Service is hosting an event during a game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Nationals Park on Saturday, May 24th. You don't have to be a federal employee to enjoy discounted tickets.

Go for the Ben's Chili Dogs and stay for the Eric Gagne blown save!

See the Partnership for Public Service website for details. Again, these are cheap Nationals tickets! Discounted Nats tix. Nationals tickets for sale. Cheep med$, be$t di$c0unt pharms rx!

From the Archives: Preakness Week Coverage

To kick off Preakness Week 2008, ECB brings you a look back at the spectacle that was our 2007 Preakness coverage:

• 10 Rules for Preakness
• Preakness vs. Kentucky Derby (Tale of the Tape)

Check back later in the week for a Preakness Trivia Quiz, our never-wrong Preakness picks, and other goodies.

More Smoke at USC as Mayo Implicated

It seems players are choosing USC for more than the exposure. A former friend of O.J. Mayo's, Louis Johnson, is alleging that Mayo accepted $30,000 in cash, as well as numerous gifts, from Bill Duffy Associates in exchange for a verbal agreement that BDA would represent Mayo during his pro career.

These allegations are similar to those that continue to dog Reggie Bush, whose parents were allegedly the beneficiaries of an interest-free loan while Bush played football at USC with the understanding that Bush would select New Era Sports and Entertainment (not the hat makers) as his representation.

The good news for USC, though, as far as NCAA sanctions are concerned, is that the university was not implicated in either set of allegations. If a coach or athletics department were complicit in such arrangements, even the death penalty would be on the table. That's especially true given the repeated nature of the conduct and the fact that it spans multiple sports. However, it is possible that the NCAA will eventually decide there is enough smoke to impose "lack of institutional control" sanctions on the university as a whole, or on specific programs.

SPACER

These aren't the first allegations involving USC. In 2005, immediately before the legendary USC-Texas Vince Young Rose Bowl, star alumnus linebacker John Papadakis ('71) was caught influencing recruits at his Greek restaurant. As a former player, he is not allowed to contact recruits. If that name looks familiar it's because his son Petros Papadakis hosts Pros v. Joes on Spike.

Of course, in February 2007 Reggie Bush was again on the violation radar after USC recruit Joe McKnight made press conference comments indicating he was influenced to choose USC by Bush. Again, that would be a violation.

blahblahblah The type of "assisting the runner" the NCAA is known to overlook

In Matt Leinart's senior year the groupies got to be too much for Leinart's dad to handle, so he moved his son into a $3,866/mo downtown L.A. apartment. (Classes? We don't need no stinking classes!) That's fine, as Leinart is allowed to be the object of his father's bounty. What isn't fine is that Dwayne Jarrett lived with Leinart. Leinart paid $500/mo, Jarrett paid $650/mo, and Mr. Leinart paid the remaining $2700 or so. Reportedly Jarrett and Leinart shared the apartment equally, making Jarrett the improper cash beneficiary of Mr. Leinart's. No one is alleging that Mr. Leinart had any intention of breaking NCAA rules, but it is another incident that points to "lack of institutional control." To make matters worse, or at least further show Bob Leinart's naivete, Mr. Leinart has stated that Jarrett would have to repay over $10,000. Oh, excuse me Mr. Leinart, we didn't realize you had just made an interest free loan to Dwayne Jarrett. That's MUCH better.

And lastly, not all vioations are created equally. This one just goes to show what happens when the 10,000,000 candlepower NCAA searchlight is on your school. Last month, at the USC Spring Game, USC's compliance department noted that an outside stadium vendor was selling t-shirts declaring "Viva Sanchez!". This is, of course, a violation because it is using an NCAA athlete's name for profit. Anyone who went to a Division I college knows that these t-shirts are made by enterprising students all the time (Bruce "The Hurricane" Perry, Lamont for Heisman, etc. etc.).

(On the other hand, it is refreshing to read something about Sanchez that doesn't include him raping a chick or hurting himself.)

blahblablahblah Willisms gives the USC scandals some perspective

SPACER

All told, the violations are piling up and the NCAA is likely going to have to take action just so they can be justified the next time they destroy a middling program like Iowa State or DePaul. The Reggie Bush issue is particularly hard to stomach, because the NCAA really doesn't want to strip USC's championship (yes, singular) or put pressure on the Downtown Athletic Club to rescind Reggie's Heisman. The course of conduct justification, on the other hand, is wonderfully convenient for the NCAA because they can punish USC for "lack of institutional control" as a whole and not focus on any one violation. I foresee this working out as a backdoor deal relatively soon.

Fundamental Difference between Men and Women

So yours truly and the wife are planning a Labor Day weekend trip to Chicago for the one-year anniversary. The wife knows that she can plan essentially the entire trip but the one thing on my agenda is to make it to a Cubs game at Wrigley Field. Any red-blooded male understands the need to go to Wrigley Field. Let alone for a sunny afternoon game on Labor Day Monday.

Tickets are obviously sold out. They've probably been sold out since five minutes after tickets went on sale. It's a good game against the Astros. And, of course, because it's Labor Day, it's an excuse for the Cubs to charge "premium pricing" for their tickets (i.e. double the normal cost). What is any buyer's recourse for a sold out event aside from dealing with scalpers? Hit Stubhub. On Stubhub, I tracked down sixth row upper deck seats which at Wrigley are ridiculously low, just behind first base, for $65/ticket. This is only ten dollars above the face value of the ticket of $55. Of course, after shipping and Stubhub's commission, this comes out to about $75/ticket.

Really? I have to give THIS experience up??

Well now it appears as if I have to resell the tickets because $75/ticket. This is not a final decision by any means. It is an ongoing "dispute" shall we say. My contention is that it is Wrigley Field, it's good seats, it's not a bad price given the sold out nature of the game, it's one of the true meccas for sports fans, I would be a whining, annoying wreck if we went to Wrigleyville the day of the game for the atmosphere and I couldn't go into the game, that on an anniversary trip I'm not going to abandon the wife for one afternoon and do my own thing, and that this is simply an opportunity that I, as a sports fan who has only ever been in Chicago one other time in November and won't foreseeably be there in baseball season anytime soon, can't pass up. The wife's contention is that $75 is a ridiculous amount to pay for baseball tickets, let alone upper deck tickets, and that it's money that could be better spent elsewhere on our trip.

Gentlemen, I don't write this because I need validation of my viewpoint. I know that I am correct. I am writing this to vent. It's Wrigley Field. It's Labor Day. It's one of the all-time best environments for a major league ballgame. I'm there. I may need a divorce attorney, but I'm there.




EDIT TEN MINUTES AFTER POST - There has been some resolution. I still win. However, our attendance will be part of my birthday present. I'm an awesome negotiator.

First Look at Preakness Weather

You can't trust a weather forecast more than about 2 days in the future, but when it comes to Preakness, I can't help myself.

If that holds up, it will be a perfect day to sit outside, drink beer, and gamble. I can't wait.

PETA to Picket Preakness

I'm sure this won't surprise anyone, but PETA is planning to stage a protest at the Preakness in the wake of the tragedy with Eight Belles in the Kentucky Derby. Even though we all saw this coming, doesn't PETA see that horse racing people love horses more than a 6 year old girl wishing for a pony? People who are involved with horse racing don't want to see anything bad happen to horses.

I hope a PETA protester gets up in my face at Preakness so I can give them a piece of my mind.

Of course, the Lettuce Ladies are welcome to protest whatever they want in the infield.

And if you think this entire post was an elaborate excuse to post those pictures, you're absolutely right.

A Sports Guide to Politics for Barack Obama

Since Hillary Clinton continues to refuse to concede defeat to Barack Obama, I thought I might suggest a new approach for the junior senator from Illinois. He needs to treat the campaign like a sporting event.

1) If Michigan and Florida counted, it'd be a tie - The sports parallel here is obvious. Hillary obviously feels like the referees jobbed her by tossing out her "wins". Obama needs only point out that the referees are part of the game. Only losers whine about poor officiating (see Seahawks, Super Bowl XL). Plus if Hillary had gotten those early calls, who's to say that Obama wouldn't have played the rest of the game differently?

2) I can win the big states - I like to call this the Phoenix Suns/San Antonio Spurs argument. Sure, Phoenix is prettier to watch. They hit the big shots and make the great passes and generally look like the real thing. The only problem is they don't win in the column that matters: points. Hillary might hit the big three or send home the thunderous dunk, but for the rest of the game she's getting outworked and outhustled by Obama.

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If you want to look at it on a whole season level, Hillary's argument is that she beats the good teams. That just means she's one of those teams that makes you want to pull your hair out, like when the Orioles take a series from the Yankees only to get swept by the Rays and Royals the next week.

blahblaahblah McCain always uses that crossover he learned in Hanoi

3) Barack can't put me away - Ever since the so-called Potomac Primaries, we've been waiting for Obama to issue the coup de grace and send Hillary seeking consolation in her vast pile of money. Barack has two sports parallels here. First, he took his foot off the gas. Of course he played a bit more conservatively with such a large lead. He might have allowed a cheapie touchdown, but he's still got the game under control. Second, he's been caught looking ahead a little bit to the next opponent, John McCain. It'd be nice to get some work in for the next opponent, and unfortunately it's let Hillary make the game look closer than it really is. Vegas handicappers are sweating a bit. So long as he doesn't pull a Patriotesque choke, he'll still be hoisting the Lombardi.

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4) Rev. Wright shows Barack chooses bad friends - This one is easy. We don't care what you do off the field so long as you bring it on game day. Barack attended a church with a sometimes-crazy pastor? So what. Michael Jordan hung out with gamblers. Wilt Chamberlain hung out with sexually transmitted organisms that haven't even been discovered yet. Ray Lewis may or may not have taken part in a double murder. So long as he brings his A game to the Oval Office, he can do whatever he wants on Sunday morning.

What is the bottom line? SCOREBOARD BITCH. The lead is insurmountable and the clock is winding down. She can say whatever she wants and take her moral victories, but at the end of the season there's going to be a big fat ring on Obama's finger. I'm sure Barack will let Hillary kiss the ring, like Michael Jordan does every time he sees Karl Malone.

Idol Recap 5/6

Tonight I can only assume there was a panoply of songs for the Idolists to choose from. We've heard lots of bemoaning from the Idolists in prior weeks about song choice and having trouble. I mean, in all honesty, it's hard for a woman to pick Dolly Parton songs and it's hard for a man to pick Neil Diamond songs. Hell, it's hard to pick Dolly Parton songs in general. But tonight, if the Idolists truly could pick just about any song in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, we should have been able to really see some separation in the contestants. And we did.

1) David Archuleta
He's the best vocalist of the group. He's a Josh Groban-type performer. He's not going to be a frontman of a band. He's going to be a soloist with a few back up singers or some strings behind him. His takes on Stand By Me and Love Me Tender were pretty stunning vocally. I actually didn't like the version of Love Me Tender but I just don't really love the song. He did great and he's one of the two finalists. No question. I would bet my wife on it. And my firstborn.

2) David Cook
Unlike Archuleta, he's the frontman of a band. He's got a distinctive voice and enjoys rising above a crescendo of hard music behind him. I didn't mind Hungry Like the Wolf, but it wasn't up to what we're used to and did seem a little karaoke. I really did love Baba O'Reilly and would actually have loved to have heard Cook sing the entire version. Really it's a two-man race. And I actually like David Cook's odds given that once Castro falls out, I'm not seeing his voters falling in line with Archuleta. I gotta say, I'd buy a David Cook CD.

3) Syesha Mercado
I liked her version of Proud Mary and yeah, it was a little bit of a large take on Tina Turner's version. But she's got a big voice and big stage presence and did just fine with it. I wasn't familiar with the Sam Cooke song (Change is Gonna Come) and really didn't love it except to say that Syesha sang it beautifully. However, I'm pretty convinced that Simon was going to have some not-so-nice things to say about it until Paula made Syesha cry. Then Simon saw that there was no way he could slam the performance with Syesha crying. Some of you may think Simon wouldn't care. I think he does. He looked pained at the end of her song.

4) Jason Castro
Really what can you say. A total clusterfuck on just about every level. I mean, he took on not one, but two singers who, according to the Idol Bible (as of yet unwritten), you never, ever, ever cover. Bob Marley and Bob Dylan. Yeah. Those two, Stevie Wonder, and a few others you just don't touch. I Shot the Sheriff was totally, insanely dreadful and painful. Simon was dead on. If he sang that in one of the cattle call auditions, he wouldn't have even gotten a golden ticket to Hollywood. Then forgetting the lyrics in the middle of Mr. Tambourine Man... that's just the cherry on top of a horrid evening. Jason doesn't care. He's just along for the ride at this point. Hell, he was even quoted in the most recent Entertainment Weekly as saying that he was kind of tired of Idol and ready to go home. Well, he'll get his wish. He's straight gone tomorrow.

A National Embarassment

I was awakened this morning to a horrific song. Yes, every franchise has a song in its history which is downright embarassing, but the Nats' new theme song might take the cake. Click on the picture below for a listen.




Thanks to the Kirk & Mark Show on 105.7 FM in Baltimore for playing the song and thanks to Eliot in the Morning, 101.1 FM in D.C. for hosting it.

Reports of My Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Nationals Park 5/4/08 underneath a 72-degree cloudless sky, 5-2 win vs. Pirates

No, this was not uttered by Eight Belles, but was actually uttered by Nationals Park, in the wake of the final two games of a four game series in which the Nats took both games surrounded by a total crowd over the two games of over 65,000. And bear in mind, this wasn't exactly a team that would draw a lot of buzz. This was the Pittsburgh Pirates in town.

A few comments on Pirate fan... dude... the stovetop hat that a lot of you all seem to enjoy wearing... it's manufactured primarily as a JOKE. It's not cool or fun or trendy to wear this eyesore and embarrassment to major league baseball uniform history to a game. Further, the total lack of Pirate fan love for any remotely recent Pirate players is all-too-clear when you take a look at the jerseys that they wear. I spotted one Jason Bay jersey. I spotted tons of Willie Stargell and Roberto Clemente jerseys. And of course Pittsburgh fans seem to feel the need more than any other fanbase to commit the #1 jersey-wearing sin... get the customized jersey with their own last name on it.

That said, let's talk Nationals Park... we have an ownership group who listens. For the first weeks of the stadium, the single biggest complaint amongst fans was the fact that the biggest scoreboard in the game was being put to total waste. All you'd get for a batter every time they came up was a giant picture, where they were born, how much they weighed, and their date of birth. No batting average. No stats. No prior plate appearances. Nothing. Starting this homestand, Kasten and company implemented wholesale changes. Full lineups of both team at bat and team in field. Double switches and pitching changes showing up immediately. Running pitch count. Accurate pitch speed. Time of day. Stats for batters as they come up. Prior plate appearances. The official scoring of the prior play (i.e. groundout to short you see a "63" on the scoreboard). Some would say why do you need all of this if you're a true fan. Well my response is that if you're going to have thousands of square feet of video screen space, you might as well make the best of it.

It also seems that Nats Park has figured out how to handle large crowds of 30,000+. Opening Night was filled with ridiculously slow concession lines, ridiculously slow bathroom lines, and people who flocked the aisles during at bats blocking the view of the game. Well yesterday, the in-laws and I went to a concession stand in the middle of the sixth inning for some dogs and had... get this... zero wait. (Ben's Chili Half Smoke = MONEY!!!!) In fact, we had about three people calling us over to their register. Line for the bathrooms has diminished greatly. Ushers implementing a new rule whereby patrons returning to their seats have to wait for at bats to end prior to entering the sections.

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I will say that in the offseason, Kasten and company are going to have to seriously examine ticket pricing. The President's Club seats behind home plate that are always empty and that make the stadium look empty on TV are just overpriced. Also, there is such a thing as too many amenities such that even though people might be at the game, they are most likely hanging out inside the Club, enjoying ridiculously good free food and watching the Nats take indoor batting practice. The Diamond Club seats are also overpriced and not going sold. Further, the sections underneath the scoreboard that are priced almost like lower deck seats are rarely sold and need to be lowered in price. However, the remainder of the lower deck and upper deck are packed. And the upper deck seats remain one of the best values in the game, even with a new stadium (they figure that the value will decrease once you drop $4 on a bottle of Dasani, $5.50 for a large soda, or $7.50 for a 20-ounce domestic draft... really not THAT bad of a deal for 20 ounces of Yuengling draft)

The place is really starting to feel like home. I took the in-laws and the wife for a tour of the place prior to the game. All three had previously spent most of their time at Oriole Park. They were all stunned and appreciative of how open the ballpark feels. When you enter from the centerfield gate, you've got the Presidents and Screech waiting for you. You enter the outfield plaza open to the field with a DJ spinning great songs to get you in the mood to have a good time. You've got the best food vendors in the park in the outfield plaza and can linger and watch batting practice. You walk upstairs to the Red Loft, the open-air bar that overlooks centerfield. You've got the wonderful overlooks that allow you to look out over the Anacostia to the Navy Yard and out to Alexandria. The other overlook that gives you the postcard view up South Capitol Street to the monuments.

Metro continues to be a winner. Fourth time at the stadium yesterday and I actually didn't put my parking pass to use that I was given for yesterday's game. The drive would only save about fifteen minutes. It's crowded to get into the Metro station but it moves very, very efficiently. Never waited yet more than a total of seven minutes for the two trains that I have to catch (green line at the park, red line at Gallery Place).

And I haven't even discussed the product on the field which took an incredible turn upwards with an 8-3 homestand. And that being done with series against the Cubs and Mets.

The Nats will do just fine attendance-wise once school lets out, once the weather gets warmer unlike the first few weeks of the season when the line for the coffee carts was longer than the line for Metro. And especially once the team gets beyond that 5-15 start.

Hudson Makes Statement, Leads Braves to Victory

Maybe Tim Hudson was embarrassed or frustrated by only going 3 innings in 2 of his last three starts. Maybe he was responding to being the unquestioned ace with Smoltz's move to the bullpen. Or maybe, just maybe, he read this blog and got mad that I said Jurrjens is the Braves' best starter.

Today, Hudson had his best performance of the year, throwing a complete game three-hitter and shutting out the Reds. He allowed no walks and threw a staggering 81 strikes of 110 pitches. Add in 10 K's and that the Reds could not muster a single extra-base hit, and you have the best outing by a Brave all year. Way to go, Tim! Maybe I should write derogatory articles more often.

In other NL East news, John Lannan had been riding a scoreless innings streak, but got lit up by the Pirates.

Kentucky Derby Picks

Brien's Picks
I was pretty successful with last year's picks in both the Derby and the Preakness, so let's hope that I have as much success this year.

A brief note about my methodology: I go through the field once at first, giving each horse a yes, no, or maybe score. After that, I evaluate all the yes and maybe horses to determine what to bet. Exactas are the bet of choice.

As always, there is one key rule to keep in mind when betting the Derby: look for distance. This is by far the longest race any of these horses has run, so we need to find a horse that performed well at 8 or 9 furlongs and still has a little bit more in the tank.

1. Cool Coal Man - "flattened out" in his last race, no thanks
   
2. Tale of Ekati - good performance in the Wood, maybe
3. Anak Nakal - Hasn't finished in the money all year, that would be a no
4. Court Vision - Not enough here to warrant much attention, cool name though
5. Eight Belles - Performed well against weak competition, maybe
6. Z Fortune - Nothing there
7. Big Truck - Tired in the Bluegrass, doesn't belong in the Derby
8. Visionaire - "lacked late kick" won't win the Derby
9. Pyro - We can look past the bad Bluegrass, he warrants a maybe
10. Colonel John - Looks good, he'll be in our exacta bets
11. Z Humor - Apparently Ahmed Zayat likes names that start with Z. Too bad his horses suck
12. Smooth Air - Not a great finisher
13. Bob Black Jack - Likes to be on the inside, and that's not going to happen in this race
14. Monba - Appears to have some distance in him, maybe
15. Adriano - Weak speed figures, no G1 races. No
16. Denis of Cork - In the field based on one good race, everything else looks pretty weak.
17. Cowboy Cal - Looks good, a couple of close calls, has some distance. Yes
18. Recapturetheglory - Came out of nowhere to win the Illinois Derby. I'd be scared to leave him off my ticket.
19. Gayego - Strong speed figures, in the top 2 every race, put him on the ticket
20. Big Brown - 3 wins in 3 lifetime starts, looks good but I hate to be the favorite. Maybe.

After one pass through the field, here's where we stand:

• Yes: Colonel John, Cowboy Cal, Recapturetheglory, Gayego
• Maybe: Tale of Ekati, Eight Belles, Pyro, Monba, Big Brown

What next? There's a lot of value in the Derby if anyone but Big Brown or Colonel John wins, so we'll leave them off the top of the ticket. My bet is:
$2 Exacta
Win: Cowboy Cal, Recapturetheglory, Gayego
Place: Cowboy Cal, Recapturetheglory, Gayego, Colonel John, Big Brown

That's a $24 bet that should pay off very nicely if it wins, especially if it hits with anyone but Colonel John or Big Brown in 2nd. For those that are taking this to the track, the numbers are
17,18,19 10, 17, 18, 19, 20 (ouch, that's a lot of money on the outside pole).

Russell's Picks
Only three horses come in under 10-1 on the morning line, so here are my thoughts on those 3 and the others worth watching.

Big Brown is the morning line favorite at 3-1, but there are reasons to be wary. The horse has only run twice this year and likes a fast pace with or near the lead. Considering the relatively bad odds, there are lots of things that could go wrong. Starting from the far outside, getting to the early lead takes some extra energy. How will Big Brown react to having the mud of 19 other horses in his face? What if it rains (chance of T-Storms in the forecast) and keeping a sub-46 pace early isn't possible? Not worth the money, in my opinion.

Colonel John is next best based on the line, and is my favorite. His victory in the Santa Anita Derby was very impressive, and he had plenty to spare for the extra 1/8 of a mile. The Beyer speed number isn't great, but the time is the same as Big Brown's victory. People are making a lot of fuss about the new surface, but I think the workout of 57-4 at CD should put that to rest. This is a legit contender.

Pyro's third at 6-1, but I'm just not impressed. Even ignoring the debacle in his last outing, the speed just doesn't appear to be enough based on finishing times of the two wins this year and the last workout. In a field with 20 horses, this is not a good value.

So which other horses are worth some money?
Gayego appears to be a mirror image of Big Brown, but at a much better price. All of the concerns about front-running and the outside post still apply, and the last workout was slow in the mud, but he seems to be ramping up at the right time.

Recapturetheglory has a legitimate shot as a frontrunner that could slow the pace early and pull away late, as the closers get slowed down by all the other horses in the field. I'm thinking War Emblem here. At 20-1, it's worth a couple bucks.

Eight Belles, the filly, certainly has the speed to compete and has been one of the most consistent horses so far, other than the favorites. Plus she likes to win, four straight coming in. The big question is whether she can hang with the boys and G1 competition.

Z Fortune could pull it off with a good trip on the rail, but that will be tough to find in such a big field. If the odds climb from 15-1, he should be considered as a long shot.


How I would bet:
$2 Exacta: Colonel John 1st, all others mentioned here 2nd (6 bets, $12 total)
$5 Win: Gayego, Recapturetheglory, Eight Belles, Z Fortune (4 bets, $20 total)
$8 Win: Colonel John (unless odds fall to 3-1 or lower)
Total $40

Final Thought: Horses that like to win and are used to winning are more likely to win. 11 of the last 12 Derby winners finished 1st or 2nd in their previous race.

J-Red's Picks

Ok, amateur hour is over. I'll start by splitting the 20 into three categories - vanity entries, outside chances and strong entries.

Vanity Entries

(1) Cool Coal Man - If you're tempted to throw out the Bluegrass you have to explain to yourself why Desormeaux was willing to bail on him too.

(2) Tale of Ekati, (3) Anak Nakal, (4) Court Vision - These are the three Wood Memorial Horses. At the second turn, Anak Nakal and Court Vision were in the same pack that made a five-wide move. Tale of Ekati stayed near the pace setters for the entire trip, winning. That means Tale of Ekati had a pretty clean trip around and posted a 93. The other two had a wider trip, posting 87 and 90. I don't see any of the three suddenly jumping into the high 90's or low 100's for this race. In fact, only Tale of Ekati has cracked 90 before of these three.

(7) Big Truck - There's nothing to be excited about here. The most impressive showing, an off-the-pace 93 in the Grade 3 Tampa Derby included no other serious Derby contenders. He was entered in the Bluegrass, only to embarass himself with a distant 11th. Now Barclay Tagg thinks he can win in this field? Huh? Workouts were impressive, but not since Bluegrass.

(8) Visionaire - Only impressive run is a 98 in a Grade 3 Gotham Stakes so foggy that the PP only includes the first call and the order of finish. Workouts are middling. Jockey is average. Trainer is below average.

(15) Adriano - Prado has been on a few of these horses, all in this category. He'll mount up on Adriano which has the unfortunate distinction of running two decent races (90 in an allowance, 92 in a Grade 2) among a handful of uninspiring 70s, including a 70 in the only race he's run on dirt.

(16) Denis of Cork - Of this tier, this is the only horse that could shock people, only because his first race was in November 2007, he has only run on dirt, and his first three races were showing a possible impressive trend. If you're going very deep in trifectas or fooling around with supers, this might warrant a look.

Outside Chances

(5) Eight Belles - This is the filly. The owner/trainer were unsure whether they would run her in this race, waiting to see where she drew. Since she got a decent post, they decided to green light her. It's not impossible for her to win, but she has been racing against vastly inferior competition (look at her odds in the past three races) and the extra five pounds just doesn't make up for that.

(10) Colonel John - Are we seriously making this horse the second favorite based on the presumption that his workouts will translate to actual race performance on a dirt track? Ok, so he's won 4 of 6 and placed in the other two, but, as Mike Watchmaker said, "the only chink in his armor is he hasn't run fast yet. Um, yeah. That's a requirement here. I just can't imagine taking this little value with this little to get me excited.

(11) Z Humor - One of my favorite things to see, especially in younger horses, is a Beyer climb approaching a big race. Z Humor has a good starting spot, and the races in 2008 show a 79-84-94 climb with a graded 97 and 96 in his past. Might he pop a 100+ Saturday? Can't put him in the top tier with comments like "mild bid", "empty" and "flattened".

(12) Smooth Air - One of the more consistent horses in the field, Smooth Air compares well with Colonel John. Has never been out of the money, but has recently been fighting an illness. Distance might be an issue too.

(13) Bob Black Jack - A lot of questions here, including a lifetime of synthetic racing. Also, he has just recently been tried at distance, with okay results. The dirt workouts aren't impressive, and if we're using that to prop up Colonel John I guess we had better be using it to knock down this fellow.

(14) Monba - This one almost made my top tier. If you throw out the Fountain of Youth, where Monba was injured, he has been building a decent resume. The only real concern again is that he hasn't really run fast yet. This could be the race, or he could just post another 92-95 and be in the middle somewhere.

(17) Cowboy Cal - Interesting Pletcher entry here. After four turf routes, he was taken to Keeneland's synthetic Bluegrass G1. He seems to have a nose for the front, with his biggest defeat since breaking his maiden coming by 1.5 lengths. I just don't see enough to pop him into the top tier.

(18) Recapturetheglory - This is the only true speed horse in the mix, save Gayego, and he's coming from way outside in the auxiliary gate. I just can't see him getting cleanly to the front here, but if he does he might hold on to a share of the podium.

(19) Gayego - Came to the dirt for the Arkansas Derby and ran the best race of his life, albeit from the front the whole way. I think if you compare Gayego's run in the Ark. Derby to Z Fortune's, you'd get the impression that Z Fortune is the better horse. Still, include in exotics. If he can get clear by the half-mile mark, might have a shot.

The Big Boys

Ok, now we've got three left. I think the winner will come from this trio.

(6) Z Fortune - This horse is not getting any love. Z Fortune got a bad trip at the Arkansas Derby, four wide on both turns. Despite that, he got within 3/4 of a length to Gayego running a fast-for-this-Derby 102. Add in a good post position and this might be the hidden gem at 15-1.

(9) Pyro - The oddsmakers have him as the third favorite. His total disaster in the Bluegrass was also his only trip in synthetic. My major concern here is that there seems to be some regression since turning three and leaving the NJ-NY circuit. Workouts are also not inspiring. Still, in this field you have to include him.

(20) Big Brown - This horse is the class of the race, but unfortunately he's hanging out in the 20th spot. Lightly raced, Big Brown could be this year's Curlin, just a race or two from being a superstud. That being said, if Big Brown can get over cleanly and quickly, Desormeaux has the horse to beat. Of major concern, Louisville is the home of UPS. UPS is beloved there. I suspect Big Brown will go off at worse than easy money (from the 20th spot in a 20 horse field in his fourth race, etc. etc. etc.) It's too bad we won't be able to bet Big Brown to win.

How I'll Bet It

$20 win - (6) Z Fortune
$20 place - (6) Z Fortune
$20 show - (6) Z Fortune

$2 ex - 6, 9, 20 OVER 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 14, 18, 19, 20 (=$48)

$1 tri box - 5, 6, 20
- 6, 20, 9 (=$12)

Total wagered = $120 (you can of course cut that in half and only use one tri box and get it down to a more manageable $60)

What I Actually Bet

Of course I had some second thoughts before I actually went to the window. I cut out the WPS bets and trifecta and went with a more conservative exacta approach, focusing on Z Fortune, Pyro and Colonel John on top. Basically I honed in on the probably exactas that would pay $100 to $400.

$2 ex 6, 9, 10/2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 20 ($66)

and to round it up to an even $70

$2 ex box 6-10

Obviously, 6-10 is probably ideal for me.