It’s that time of year again, the first Sunday in May is coming up fast, and with it, the most exciting two minutes in sports.
- Lookin At Lucky (3-1): I just can’t see taking a horse at those odds in a 20-horse field. The past races look good, if you can throw out the latest result, a Show at the Santa Anita Derby where he was steadied. He’s run in great class over the last 8 months, and won most outings.
- Ice Box (10-1): Took a huge jump in Beyers over the off-season, and has been prepping at 9 furlongs all year (3 races at that distance). We’ll keep an eye on him.
- Noble’s Promise (12-1): He’s lost to Lookin at Lucky three times, and was beaten by 3 other Derby horses in his last outing.
- Super Saver (15-1): Consistently improving Beyers, but not a lot of wins to show for it.
- Line of David (30-1): Came out of nowhere to win the Arkansas Derby (after two turf wins). This is the type of horse I like to watch at Churchill.
- Stately Victor (30-1): Came out of nowhere to win the Bluegrass after two poor showings on turf (sound familiar?). He’s a closer, which is always good at the Derby distance.
- American Lion (30-1): Won the Illinois Derby (G3) from the front, but doesn’t look to have the stamina to go a mile and a quarter.
- Dean’s Kitten (50-1): Never run on a real dirt surface (mostly turf and a few synthetic races). The dirt workouts don’t look very good either.
- Make Music for Me (50-1): Another one with no dirt experience, and no wins off the turf.
- Paddy O’Prado (20-1): Best results on turf, may have the stamina for the distance.
- Devil May Care (10-1): The only chick in the race is one of only three horses to hit a 100 Beyer figure, but she’s taking a big jump in class going against the big boys. Also, I don’t like to see “shied from whip” in the notes.
- Conveyance (12-1): Consistent high Beyers, but hasn’t raced a G1 and didn’t win his only attempt at 9 furlongs.
- Jackson Bend (15-1): Always a bridesmaid, he doesn’t look to have what it takes to cross the line first.
- Mission Impazible (20-1): There’s nothing to write home about here. A good, but not spectacular, showing in the Louisiana Derby.
- Discreetly Mine (30-1): Not enough stamina.
- Awesome Act (10-1): I don’t know why he’s getting odds this short, he hasn’t run much distance, and had mixed results over the last 6 months.
- Dublin (12-1): Doesn’t win races, doesn’t have the legs to run 1.25 miles.
- Backtalk (50-1): Awful Beyers, no wins lately against good competition, totally out-classed.
- Homeboykris (50-1): Another out-classed wannabe
- Sidney’s Candy (5-1): Great results, but all on synthetic, and he’s got a long way to go from the far outside.
OK, so who do we like?
- Ice Box
- Line of David
- Stately Victor
And I’m wishy-washy on the favorites
- Lookin at Lucky
- Sidney’s Candy
So I’ll take a $2 exacta with Ice Box, Line of David, and Stately Victor over those three plus Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy. A $24 bet that should pay out nicely if it hits.
If you’re going to the track, that’s:
$2 EX 2,5,6 | 1,2,5,6,20