December 26, 2008

2009 NFL Draft Order after Week 16

If the season ended today, and the playoffs went according to seeding, this would be the 2009 NFL Draft Order:

1) Detroit (0-15)
2-3) Kansas City/St. Louis (2-13)
4) Cincinnati (3-11-1)
5) Seattle (4-11)
6) Oakland (4-11)
7) Cleveland (4-11)
8) Green Bay (5-10)
9) Jacksonville (5-10)
10) San Francisco (6-9)
11) Buffalo (7-8)
12) Houston (7-8)
13) San Diego (7-8)
14) Washington (8-7)
15) New Orleans (8-7)
16) Denver (8-7)
17) Arizona (8-7)
18) Philadelphia (8-6-1)
19) New York Jets (9-6)
20) Chicago (9-6)
21) Dallas (9-6) (traded to Detroit in Roy Williams deal)
22) Tampa Bay (9-6)
23) Minnesota (9-6)
24) New England (10-5)
25) Atlanta (10-5)
26) Baltimore (10-5)
27) Miami (10-5)
28) Indianapolis (11-4)
29) Carolina (11-4) (traded to Philadelphia)
30) Pittsburgh (11-4)
31) Super Bowl Loser (New York Giants or Tennessee)
32) Super Bowl Champion (New York Giants or Tennessee)

The playoffs teams as of today are Arizona (8-7), Denver (8-7), Minnesota (9-6), Tampa Bay (9-6), Atlanta (10-5), Baltimore (10-5), Miami (10-5), Carolina (11-4), Indy (11-4), Pittsburgh (11-4), New York Giants (12-3) and Tennessee (13-2). This draft ordering assumes the playoffs go according to seed (3 over 6, 4 over 5, 2 over 3, 1 over 4, 1 over 2).

The draft tiebreakers are as follows:

1) Worst record picks first, and teams are ranked by record, worst to best. A non-playoff team takes priority over playoff teams with the same record. Playoff teams with the same regular season record are prioritized by the round in which they exit the playoffs.

2) Ties are broken first with strength of schedule (total number of wins by 16 opponents, or average winning percentage of all 16 opponents, the result is the same)

3) If teams are same division, divisional playoff tiebreakers

4) If teams are same conference, but not same division, conference playoff tiebreakers

5) Coin Flip

Kansas City and St. Louis have the same strength of schedule (opponents have 128.5 wins). Since they are in different conferences, if they remain tied after Week 17 a coin flip would decide the draft order.

Seattle, Oakland and Cleveland are all 4-11, but Seattle's SOS is 119.5, Oakland's is 125, and Cleveland's is 137.5.

Green Bay's SOS is 123 to Jax's 128.5.

Washington's SOS is 115.5 and New Orleans' is 118. Denver and Arizona are both currently playoff teams, so they lose ties to WAS and NO. Denver's SOS is 109 to Arizona's 117.5.

The Jets, Bears and Cowboys all have nine wins, but the SOSs are 111.5, 112.5 and 119.5 respectively. Tampa Bay and Minnesota are playoff teams, so they pick after the other three nine-win teams. Tampa is a wild card currently, and thus exits the playoffs earlier than Minnesota, so they win the tiebreaker that way. They also would win it on SOS.

Among the 10-win teams, New England picks first by virtue of not being in the playoffs. Miami, as a division winner, is projected to win their first round game, so it loses tiebreakers to Baltimore and Atlanta. Atlanta picks ahead of Baltimore by virtue of SOS, 110.5 to 124.5.

Among the 11-win teams, Indianapolis is projected to lose first, based on seeding, so they pick first. Carolina picks ahead of Pittsburgh as they have an SOS of 118 to Pitt's 125.5.

The Titans cannot pick better than 29th.

8 Responses:

Nikhil Verma said...

In the spirit of making suggestions, I think it would be kind of neat if the NFL did a NBA type lottery. Televise it live during pregame of the Super Bowl. I would say halftime but that would mean Jason couldn't have his smoking break.
Instead of a player or former player representing the teams like they do in the NBA, each team has one cheerleader being the "representative". Dallas could even send 2.
Just like the NBA, there would be a lottery for picks 1-3, and then reseed the rest based on record.
This way, the Lions could get screwed again. The Redskins would "win the lottery" and then give Washington pro sports another Kwame Brown or Heath Shuler.

J-Red said...

No way. I hate the lottery, even though it has more impact in the NBA where one player can make you a decade-long playoff team.

Plus, the NFL salary cap effectively destroys the team that continually has top-five picks. Let 'em rot.

Nikhil Verma said...

Yeah, I meant it more facetiously. As a Wizards/Bullets fan (to the extent I care about the NBA), I hate the NBAlottery as well

Brien said...

Jason, I think you have some of the playoff rankings wrong. The 31 an 32 picks do go to the two Super Bowl teams, but I think if the Titans lose in their first playoff game they'll still pick #30 because playoff exit only matters for same-record tiebreakers.

So picks 21-30 are mis-labeled. We have an idea where the playoff teams will pick, except that the two Super Bowl teams get #31 and #32, and that ties are broken by playoff exit.

Also, I think that even if Arizona wins this weekend (to be 9-7), they'll pick before New England (with 10 wins) provided the Cardinals don't make the playoffs. Similarly, some of the other playoff teams could end up picking before non-playoff teams with higher records.

Nikhil Verma said...

So here's an interesting question. Let's say you're Georgia QB Matt Stafford. The mock drafts have you, as a junior, possibly going #1this year. Do you a) stay in school so you don't get drafted by the Lions, a team that might be winless for the season after tomorrow, or b) pull an Eli Manning or Eric Lindros (hockey, for those who don't know) and essentially demand a trade by saying you will not sign with them under any circumstances, or c) leave school and look at it as an opportunity to be a Troy Aikman or Peyton Manning or Donovan McNabb. In other words, your team blows during your rookie season but gradually gets better, and eventually you play late into the playoffs.

What I'm asking is this.........Does the possibility of Stafford going to the Lions play any part in his decision to leave or stay at Georgia?

J-Red said...

Yeah, Brien, you're right. I'm fixing it now. The official rule is:

For teams that make the playoffs, ties are broken by the order in which teams lost in the playoffs. If teams lost in the same round, strength of schedule is applied.

So the Titans could be locked in at 30, depending on their result and the Giants' game. Otherwise, we'll have to see when those teams exit.

J-Red said...

Nikhil, it unfortunately does play a part because the Lions have NO quarterback in the wings. On the other hand, with Kevin Jones and Calvin Johnson, you'd probably want to take a shot at it.

J-Red said...

Brien, I saw what you mean about Tenn. They cannot pick better than 29th though, actually. If the Giants win and Tennessee loses this week, the Giants presently own a one-game SOS "disadvantage". I fixed everything else assuming the playoffs go according to seed.

Summer is here and there's never been a better time to try your hand at online sports betting. Place your bets on your favorite horse with horse racing or even try your luck with your favorite football team. Enjoying sport is just a click away!