THESE ARE THE 2007 PICKS. THE 2008 PREAKNESS PICKS ARE HERE! NOTE THAT THE TRIFECTA GIVEN HERE IS A WINNER, AND THAT WE STRONGLY ADVISED BETTING ON CURLIN TO WIN.
This is Part III of East Coast Bias' Preakness coverage. Part I was a list of rules for attending Preakness. Part II was a "Tale of the Tape" comparison of Preakness and the Kentucky Derby.
Now that you know why Preakness is the best of the Triple Crown races, and you know how to avoid the pitfalls of attending the race, it's time to get down to the nitty gritty. Who do you like? My Preakness handicapping track record isn't the best, but I did nail the Kentucky Derby exacta this year, so I'll let you decide how seriously to take my picks. (You can check out the Past Performances for yourself here.)
Starting at the post and working our way out:
- Mint Slewlep - Named after the officia drink of the Derby, that's one strike against him already. He's been blown out of the two graded stakes races he's been in, and his speed figures suck. Also, Preakness is a full furlong longer than he's ever run before. Don't throw your money away on this horse.
- Xchanger - Nothing much here. He's totally outclassed by the top horses in the race.
- Circular Quay - I liked him in the Derby, but he got bumped back in the clusterfuck of the final turn. A 6th place finish in that race is nothing to sneeze at. Let's call him a maybe.
- Curlin - Showed he's for real in the Derby. We'll definitely be betting on him.
- King of the Roxy - Caught late by Tiago in the Santa Anita Derby. I'm not sure he can handle the distance against this field. Cross him out.
- Flying First Class - I have no idea why D. Wayne Lukas would even bring this horse to the Preakness. He's wasting his owner's money.
- Hard Spun - He almost held out till the end in the Derby, running a very impressive race. If he gets out front again in the Preakness, I wouldn't want to be cheering against him.
- Street Sense - Got a great trip in the Derby, any number of complications could have ruined his race. I can't remember another time that I've seen a horse run so cleanly through traffic. The Preakness will be different, though. The 8 other horses will be gunning for him, anticipating that late break for the rail and then the finish line. If he's going to come from behind again, it will have to be around the outside, something that neither he nor Borel want to do. Even with the huge success Derby winners have had in the Preakness over the past years, I don't love Street Sense to contend for the Triple Crown. I'll put him in the money, but not on top.
- C P West - Yet another outclassed horse (why does the Preakness seem to attract this type of horse?)
So here's how we stand after going through the field:
|Curlin||Circular Quay||Mint Slewlep|
|Street Sense||King of the Roxy|
|Flying First Class|
|C P West|
Not surprisingly, I like the three top finishers in the Derby to repeat their performances in the Preakness. Here's how the Morning Line odds look for the horses we haven't ruled out:
- Circular Quay: 8/1
- Curlin: 7/2
- Hard Spun: 5/2
- Street Sense: 7/5
4,7 3,4,7,8 3,4,7,8
That's $24 ($2 each way if I did my math correctly), and it should pay out pretty well, even with the low odds.
For an added bonus, here are my picks for the Black Eyed Susan - Preakness Daily Double for those of you making your Preakness bets on Friday:
Take the 2 and 1 horses in the BES (Panty Raid, Winning Point) and the 4 and 7 in the Preakness (Curlin and Hard Spun) for $5 each way. That's a $20 bet that should pay well.
For the record, J-Red likes Curlin, Curlin, and Curlin in the Preakness.