September 12, 2007

Week 3 CFB Picks

After an interesting week, the new week brings with it a number of intriguing cross-country matchups along with some conference openers. Certain games just scream danger like Michigan-ND, but a few other look a little juicier.

West Virginia (-16) over MARYLAND: I might as well start with the Thursday night matchup. I hate to pick against the Terps, and I am notoriously cynical about my own teams. However, West Virginia covered last week in spite of a very game effort by Marshall. Also, Maryland has had a very short week to prepare for West Virginia's unconventional offense. Maryland will play hard, but I don't think it will be enough.

WASHINGTON (+4) over Ohio St.: Upset pick of the week. I have no idea how Washington is the underdog here. Washington beat Boise St. 24-10 last week, while Ohio St. was 3-2 at the half with Akron at home. This will be a big victory for the Pac 10.

UNC (-3) over Virginia: Virginia's weak efforts against Wyoming and Duke are a recipe for disaster against an improving UNC team under Butch Davis. Believe it or not, last week's loss to ECU wasn't that bad. Just check the ECU-VT score when VT was really amped up.

Arkansas (+3.5) over ALABAMA: Nick Saban's first home SEC game doesn't quite go according to plan. A rested Arkansas team will test John Parker in ways Vanderbilt couldn't dream of. Arkansas won't make the SEC Championship game again this year, but that's not because they're significantly worse.

Southern Cal (-9.5) over NEBRASKA: Big game of the week! I know it's on the road and Nebraska's "good", but did you see how open that Wake receiver was down the field? Not once but twice? USC's receivers are faster and won't drop the ball. Also, Wake's defense shut down the Nebraska running game. What do you think USC's will do?

Last Week: (3-2-0)
Season: (4-2-0)

8 Responses:

michael said...

Some Pac-10 dap! I love it. Anyway, I agree with the pics...here are my predicted scores:

WVa 42, Maryland 10
Washington 21, Ohio State 18
UNC 24, Virginia 10
Alabama 17, Arkansas 16
USC 237, Nebraska (-19)

"ben" said...

Gutless! You're not even putting up the UM-ND game? What's the spread? I'll make the call. Is it a pick 'em game?

Russell said...

It's Michigan -7.

"ben" said...

If you're serious, this easy. I'll take ND with the points.

Didn't I already post this would be a 9-6 final, triple OT? Maybe I did that somewhere else...

J-Red said...

Arkansas is the only one of these I question, but the points might swing it.

How about this line:

PENN STATE -34 Buffalo O/U is 47.

I see it this way:

PSU + over = 45%

PSU + under = 10% (34-0 to 40-6 only score ranges that do it)

Buffalo + over = 10% (Buffalo would have to score over 13 points and PSU would also have to score a lot, but not cover)

Buffalo + under = 45%

There's some good parlay money to be made when you can nearly eliminate half the possibilities. It's almost back to a 50-50, except you get paid 3.5 to 1.

Russell said...

Too bad you weren't a math major. 45+10+45+10 = 110%

Brien said...

I don't need much encouragement to bet on a Ty Willingham team against the Buckeyes.

J-Red said...

Hmmm. Not only was I not a math major, Brien didn't catch the same mistake when I sent it to him earlier this afternoon.

Adjusted to 40-10-10-40.

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