Everyone loves football, and most football fans like to gamble. The incredible excitement of the first week of the season, both college and NFL, can lead to the desire to start the season off with some winnings. Here are some reasons why discretion might be the better part of valor in this case.
Coaching Changes - RichRod, Neuheisel, Bo Pellini, Paul Johnson, Jim Zorn, Bill Parcells/Sparano... who knows how quickly the new systems will take effect or whether the appropriate talent is in place yet. In addition, under the radar changes can affect things more than you realize. Coordinators are hired and fired to minimal fanfare, yet they do most of the actual hands-on coaching on most teams. In addition, schemes change as well. Did you know Auburn is running the spread this year? Or that Maryland is switching to a 3-4 defense? Some of those quirks take a couple real games to work themselves out, and it doesn't even take a coaching change for some of them to happen.
Preseason Games Mean NOTHING!! - Bettors instinctively rely on the most recent games as the basis for their decisions, but the preseason with limited playbooks and experimental packages is worthless for predicting anything. Even the time with the starters in the game is worthless, for the most part. In addition, the last couple regular season games of last year aren't reliable as good NFL teams were resting their stars, while the bad teams had already given up. And if you think college scrimmages and spring games are helpful, you should spend your money elsewhere.
The Razorbacks didn't just lose McFadden and Jones, they lost Nutt too. Who knows what they have this year, other than a new everything?
Vegas Knows Everything - While you've been busy watching the Olympics, drafting your fantasy teams, and sleeping through the dog days of summer, the odds makers have been studying these teams carefully. They know more than we do until the primary evidence is seen by everyone, in the form of a game or two (a good reason to check out Doc's if you must gamble now).
Personnel Changes - Everyone knows about the big trades and the graduating seniors. Obviously, Arkansas won't be the same without McFadden and Jones, but what impact will Terrence Pryor have? Will Favre's new team excel in his presence? Everyone can only guess.
Injuries - Always a variable, the severity of offseason injuries is hard to predict, and the loss of key players can really damage a team's chances. Can the Giants repeat without Osi and Strahan? Should UGA still be a favorite for the national title without their starting left tackle? Is Peyton really healthy for week 1 and will he be sharp if he even plays?
Good luck with your betting this year, but try to be patient early in the season. Just remember Michigan last year if you need a reminder.
2 Responses:
"Just remember Michigan last year if you need a reminder."
Taking UM's opponents with the points was always a good bet. I don't remember the spread against Appalachian State, but I'm pretty sure I would have taken the Mountaineers with the points, and I would have been right. So, with Michigan as my reminder, I'm rather encouraged to bet early and often.
It's okay to bet on routinely overrated teams in Week 1, assuming you like the game otherwise. I'm thinking Clemson.
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