March 8, 2010

ACC Tournament Odds

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That’s right, it’s Championship Week, and the Terps actually have a chance to win the ACC Tournament this year.  I couldn’t find the odds posted yet, so here’s my uninformed take on what the odds should be.

Virginia (50-1) - They looked decent on Saturday and gave the Terps a scare, but the Cavs have lost 9 in a row and would have to face Duke in the second round.

Boston College (45-1) - It’s sad to see Al Skinner’s squad playing this badly, where they have to battle UVA for a chance to get slaughtered by Duke.

NC State (45-1) - The Wolfpack don’t have any easy games in the Tournament.  To win, they would likely have to play the top 4 teams in the conference according to the Sagarin ratings.

Miami (40-1) - A couple years ago it looked like the Canes might be building a decent basketball program. 

North Carolina (20-1) - The only reason the odds are this low is that you never want to turn your back on a wounded bear.  The Tar Heels’ pride was severely damaged when they got blown out at Duke, and the tournament is just down the road from Chapel Hill.

Georgia Tech (15-1) - The only team from the ACC left on the bubble, the Yellow Jackets would have to do a lot to convince the Selection Committee to either take a 7th ACC team in a down year for the conference, or to leapfrog Virginia Tech or Wake Forest.

Wake Forest (10-1) - The Demon Deacons have played their way into the NCAA Tournament, but I just don’t see them making the semifinals of the ACC tourney.

Clemson (7-1) - Clemson has fallen off a bit after starting the season incredibly hot, but they are still a very good team.  The second round matchup with FSU should be a great one.

Florida State (6-1) - The Seminoles got a bit screwed with the scheduling, as they’ll have to face a tough Clemson team in the second round, but they’re in the NCAA Tournament and have a good enough team to make a run.

Virginia Tech (4-1) - The Hokies have been playing good basketball lately, and they’ll be fighting for convince the NCAA Tournament Committee that they really deserve to be in.

Duke (Even) - It pains me to do this, but the Blue Devils have such are always so good in the ACC Tournament, especially when it is in Greensboro.  It would be an upset for any other team to win.

Maryland (2-1) - If any team can knock off Duke, it’s the Terps.  They showed last week that they can play with the level of emotion necessary to slow down Duke’s prolific offense.


Update: has the actual odds posted.  I wasn’t as far off as I thought I’d be.

2 Responses:

gpb said...

Brien, you favor Tech too highly. It's in Greensboro so it's definitely a road game - something we tend not to do well at. Hewitt's road record is potentially the worst of coaches in the ACC.

My bet: we lose in the first round to the Tar Heels, who play with fire for two games and lose the second one.

If we somehow manage to sweep the Heels this season, we might have a better shot against the Terps given the game at your place. If we can sneak past you guys, we would probably lose in the finals. I think we could beat Florida State or the Clemson/NC State winner in Greensboro.

We're deeper than most teams and if we play out of our minds good, we are amazing. Duke doesn't have the depth we do so we should keep the finals close if we are so lucky to make it. Odds: 30-1 for us.

gpb said...

Nothing on how crazy the tourney has been? I'm not even trying to gloat. I would never have expected Duke, Miami, Tech, and NC State in the semis.

But if we make it to the finals and lose, I'll look brilliant except for my spread pick. But I'm sure Vegas hates everyone right now except Duke.

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