Missouri Valley Tournament Preview

The first conference tournament for a league projected to get multiple bids is the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament this weekend in St. Louis, "Arch Madness". Four teams in the MVC have a shot at an at-large, but only one is a lock, so this tournament could have serious bubble implications. Here's a look at the contenders and their potential paths, listed by seeding.

#1 Drake (RPI: 15, SOS: 85) - Their victory at Butler during BracketBusters finalized their berth in the NCAA's. Playing for the conference crown with a 15-3 conference mark, the Bulldogs staggered down the stretch, going 2-3 in their last 5 conference games. Their path to the finals goes through #8 Indiana State and then #4 Creighton. Neither team beat Drake in the regular season, though Creighton took them to OT in the meeting at Creighton. Definitely the favorite.

#2 Illinois State (RPI: 34, SOS: 77) - Not a team many have heard much about this year, this team is currently in based on Lunardi's latest Bracketology. However, their best nonconference win was Cincinnati, so their hold on the tournament is tenuous at best. They play the winner of the second play-in game (currently #7 Missouri St.), and then get #3 Southern Illinois in the semis, both of whom they swept in the regular season.

#3 Southern Illinois (RPI: 51, SOS: 11) - Normally a mid-major team with 13 losses is not on the bubble, but Lunardi has them as one of the "next four out". A look at their schedule shows why. Victories over Miss St., St. Mary's, and Western Kentucky (all RPI top 50) punctuate a 6-6 nonconference record, which also includes losses to top 50 Indiana, Butler, and USC. They get Northern Iowa in the first round, a team they split with in the regular season. The first round is absolutely must-win.

#4 Creighton (RPI: 55, SOS: 84) - St. Joe's and Oral Roberts were good nonconference wins, but the SOS is not there to merit an at-large right now. Creighton has to beat Bradley (RPI: 93) who crushed Creighton at Bradley. This is a rematch of a game last Saturday at Creighton that went to 2OT, with Creighton finally winning 111-110 to get the #4 seed. Creighton must beat Bradley and then Drake to get considered for an at-large, but if they make the finals, they might as well make it easy for the committee and win one more.

Game to Watch:
#2 Illinois State vs. #3 Southern Illinois - If this game happens, it's crucial for both. A win would put either team in, while a loss would probably knock either one out. It's hard to see the MVC getting more than 2 teams, though Illinois State would still have a slim shot if they lose. Illinois State swept the season's pair of games and would separate themselves from Southern Illinois with a victory.

Cinderella:
#5 Bradley - Coming off a 2OT loss at Creighton, a team they already beat at home, Bradley should have plenty of confidence in the first round and could easily end the Bluejays' hopes of the NCAA's. Bradley's two games with Drake were split with a 1 point victory for each team on the road. The rubber match could go Bradley's way. Bradley would then want to see Illinois St instead of Southern Illinois, based on their split with Illinois St. in the regular season. If Bradley goes all the way, the MVC could be a 3 bid league, especially if Illinois St. is their opponent in the finals.

Prediction:
Southern Illinois over Bradley in the final.

A first round loss by any of the #2, #3 or #4 seeds would put them out of the tournament. Watch the finals Sunday at 1 on CBS and enjoy the start of (M)Arch Madness!