September 16, 2009

College Football Picks - Week 3

After a painful Week 2, this is the week where I go against what I want to believe and hope that the losing picks continue, specifically:

Mid Tenn St (+6) over MARYLAND - There can be many reasons for the results of the Terps' first two games, but the results are not good. The line is green, the defense is struggling in a new system, and the opponent is a team to whom we lost by 10 pts last year. This year, they've already beaten Memphis by 17. Their loss to Clemson can be attributed to Clemson's physical superiority, a claim we can't make to the extent Clemson can. Please Terps, prove me wrong.

Tech needs to slow down Jacory Harris to have a chance.

MIAMI (-4.5)
over Georgia Tech - Last year on a Thursday night late in the season, Tech crushed the Canes, amassing some 450+ rushing yards. The question, as always after such a blowout, is whether Tech has Miami's number, or Miami will come out desperate for revenge and stuff the Jackets. The Canes have had a couple extra days to prepare for the option, and Harris looked unstoppable against FSU. But then FSU almost lost to Jax State. I'm thinking Miami takes advantage of the fact that Tech hasn't really found its rhythm offensively, and they get their revenge.

Boise St (-7) over FRESNO ST - As previously mentioned in this column, I don't want Boise in the BCS given their lack of a non-conference schedule. This game and Tulsa (and maybe Nevada) are the only ones they have even half a shot at losing, so I'm still hoping someone knocks them off. I'd much rather see BYU in the BCS, who would deserve it after having to beat Oklahoma, FSU, Utah, and TCU, at a minimum.

Georgia (+1.5) over ARKANSAS - I'll be the first to tell you that the Dawgs aren't as good as last year, but underdogs to the Razorbacks? We'll see if Petrino has them better prepared than in their first SEC game last year, a pounding by Alabama.

And now for a few other games:
CLEMSON (-7) over Boston College - Athletic superiority and the Eagles' lack of a QB.

VIRGINIA TECH (-4.5) over Nebraska - Lane Stadium plus the Hokies' physicality determine this game, much as the game in Lincoln was last year.

AUBURN (-7) over West Virginia - The Mountaineers haven't replaced Pat White yet, and the Tigers looked sharp last week against Miss St.

Last Week: 2-5
Season: 6-9

5 Responses:

gpb said...

Clemson -7 Boston College. Matt Ryan still not there.

Boise St -7 Fresno State. Boise's schedule sucks. Fresno State's coach looks like a prison shower rapist.

East Carolina +7.5 UNC. Pirates have been a surprise in big games and UNC didn't look good against a weak Big East team.

VT -4.5 Nebraska. VT looked good against Bama and the Huskers played chumps.

Notre Dame -10 Michigan State. Irish lost a close one but they look pretty good unfortunately. Spartans lost to Central Mich.

BYU -7.5 f$u. Free Shoes U doesn't look strong in their secondary and Jack State kept it close in the 4th.

ugag +1.5 Arkansas. It's Arkansas. They shouldn't be favorites in the SEC.

Texas -17.5 Texas Tech. This is a grudge match and I think they will cover. Plus, no Crabtree.

Maryland -6 Middle Tenn St. This is a hard one... I feel like you guys have to make some progress.

I'd love to pick Florida/Tennessee but I don't like the spread. Grudge match and Lane gets teabagged.

Last week: 2-4
Season: 5-5

Anonymous said...

The mountaineers havent replaced Pat White yet? Maybe you should actually check yourself. His name is Jarrett Brown, and he's got the 8th best pass efficiency in the country.

Russell said...

Anonymous WVU Fan,

I know who Jarrett Brown is and he has some lovely numbers after playing Liberty and ECU. But this is his first year as the starter, and he hasn't even been sacked yet. He's thrown one pick, and the team hasn't gone on the road yet. Let's see how he does after Auburn's defense has hit him in the mouth a few times, and when his line can't hear him. They haven't replaced White because Brown doesn't have that kind of experience yet, it's not all about athletic ability and numbers against lower-tier schools. If he plays well Saturday, then maybe you can start to say that.

"ben" said...

Now, now, Russ. Brown may not have the extensive starting experience of White, but this is, what, his 5th year in school? Maybe just his 4th. He has played a fair bit over the years, especially with White's injuries.

Obviously it's impossible to know what to expect from him this year, but I don't expect QB to be the 'Eers big concern. Their problem is they still need to replace RichRod...

Russell said...

I know there will come a time this year where I get called out and am actually wrong. But Jarrett Brown's 5 turnovers, leading to most of Auburn's points, certainly make me look smart this week.

Unquestionably, Brown is much better than whoever else they have, and all WVU fans need to pray that the wrist injury is minor.

Ben, I completely agree that Stewart is not as good as RichRod, and the difference is clear.

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