September 12, 2008

Week 2 NFL Picks

Brien (3-2-0)
Week 2, or "Overreaction Week" as I like to call it.  We don't know a whole lot more than we did in week 1, but a lot of people are going to take the one good data point they have (the week 1 results) and think they can extrapolate from there.  People who got killed betting last week will quickly jump ship to look for winners, and people who won big will think they've found this year's sleeper teams.  Vegas Watch  has a nice post on this phenomenon.

TAMPA BAY (-7.5) over Atlanta - This one has people overreacting both ways.  The Bucs didn't cover last week and the Falcons were surprisingly good.  

JACKSONVILLE (-5.5) over Buffalo - The Jags lost a tough game at Tennessee last week, but they're still one of the best teams in the AFC.

New England (+2) over NY JETS - The Jets looked good last week and the Pats lost Brady, but this line is absurd.

Baltimore (+5) over HOUSTON - The Ravens have to travel into a hurricane, but the Texans have family and friends affected by the storm.  (I may be overreacting to last week on this one)

Indianapolis (-2) over MINNESOTA - The Colts aren't nearly as bad as they looked last week.


Jason (2-3-0)

We still don't know anything, only now we can easily be tricked into THINKING we do. That makes Week 2 especially dangerous, but it also leads to some bargain lines.

Indianapolis (-2) over MINNESOTA - I expect Peyton to bounce back fast, even on the road.

New Orleans (+1) over WASHINGTON - This spread makes no sense, and that scares me. I just can't see the Skins' weak tackling keeping them in this.

Baltimore (+5) over HOUSTON - The change in time and date should affect Houston more than the Ravens. Those players have houses and family to worry about.

Atlanta (+7.5) over TAMPA BAY - Matt Ryan v. Griese? That's a toss-up.

DENVER (+1.5) over San Diego - Denver is for real. They may be the second best AFC team. If I were betting cash, this is the only game I'd bet, and I'd bet it hard.


Jeremy (3-2-0)

Week 2 always proves that we know less than we think we learned during Week 1.  Fortunately, Vegas is much in the same shoes as we are.  After a serviceable opening week, here we go:

New England (+2) over NEW YORK JETS - Matt Cassel didn't exactly have bad numbers when he took over for Brady.  The weapons are still there for him and it wasn't too hard for Favre to look good against the Dolphins.

DENVER (+1.5) over San Diego - Color me impressed when Jay Cutler puts up 41 points, even on Oakland.  No Merriman is a huge loss for the San Diego D, playing at altitude.

Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT - Color me impressed with Aaron Rodgers hanging tough against a tough Vikings defense.  This game will test the Pack's secondary, unlike their last game.

SEATTLE (-7.5) over San Francisco - This is a lot of points to give up, but San Francisco has proved that aside from Frank Gore, they are just friggin horrible.  I wish my boy Vernon Davis landed someplace better.

New Orleans (+1) over WASHINGTON - I hate picking against my team, but I'm confident in this pick unfortunately, even without Colston, because my eyes saw a Redskins team that played so piss poor on September 4 that not even 10 days was enough to get them where they need to be.

Magic 8 Ball (2-3-0)
New England (+2) over NEW YORK JETS - "My answer is no." (Jets won't beat spread)
San Diego (-1.5) over DENVER - "My answer is no." (Broncos won't beat spread)
Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT - "No." (Lions won't beat spread)
SEATTLE (-7.5) over San Francisco - "Signs point to yes." (Seahawks will beat spread)
WASHINGTON (-1) over New Orleans - "Signs point to yes." (Redskins will beat spread)

Russell (3-2-0)
This week is all about judging the effect of Week 1 injuries, and figuring out how seriously to take Week 1's results.

New England (+2) over NEW YORK JETS - I see the Pats circling the wagons for this one.  They might lose some games later in the year, but they'll be out to prove that they're still contenders this week.  The Jets don't have a good scouting report on Cassel, and Favre will be good for a couple turnovers.

Tennessee (+1) over CINCINNATI - Kerry Collins has looked quite good leading the Titans, and the Titans' victory last week over a good Jags team seems to have been lost in the hubbub about Vince.  Look for them to take advantage of a bad Bengals team.

Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT - Good team to beat a bad team.  Rodgers looked sharp and confident, while the Lions got gashed by the Falcons last week.

San Francisco (+7.5) over SEATTLE - At this rate, the Seahawks will be holding "Invincable" style tryouts at WR.  The offense already looked crippled last week at Buffalo, and now Burleson's out for the year too?  The 49ers defense is good enough to keep them close in this game, even if they don't win.

ARIZONA (-6.5) over Miami - Arizona was excellent at home last year even against top-notch competition, and I see no reason why that would change against lesser competition this year.  And yes, I picked a home team!

Final note: If you like the over/under bet, I really like the under (42.5) for the Saints/Skins game.

Brien - TB, JAX, NE, BAL, IND
Jason - IND, NO, BAL, ATL, DEN
Jeremy - NE, DEN, GB, SEA, NO
Russell - NE, TEN, GB, SF, ARI
Magic 8 Ball - NE, SD, GB, SEA, WAS

3 Responses:

J-Red said...

The Saints/Skins O/U number is a killer. The game could be 38-3 Saints just as easily as it could be 24-21 Redskins.

Russell said...

I think the odds of the Skins putting up 24 in this game are slim to none, and I thought the Skins defense played well enough to keep an injured Saints offense in check. Also, in the highlights of last week's affair, the Saints were scoring on a bunch of long plays, which are not as easy to repeat. They didn't march down the field and stuff it in with authority.

We'll see if I'm right, or if I overreacted to Week 1.

michael said...

Thats a good one. I love over/under bets, much more than taking point lines. I was 2/3 in my o/u bets last week, and if Braylon Edwards wasn't an incompetent moron, I would have been 3/3.

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