January 12, 2009

2009 NFL Draft Order After Divisional Round

The first 20 spots are locked in. Here's how the rest shakes out based on the four possible Super Bowl Matchups.

1) Detroit (0-16)
2) St. Louis (2-14)
3) Kansas City (2-14)
4) Seattle (4-12)
5) Cleveland (4-12)
6) Cincinnati (4-11-1)
7) Oakland (5-11)
8) Jacksonville (5-11)
9) Green Bay (6-10)
10) San Francisco (7-9)
11) Buffalo (7-9)
12) Denver (8-8)
13) Washington (8-8)
14) New Orleans (8-8)
15) Houston (8-8)
16) San Diego (8-8)
17) New York Jets (9-7)
18) Chicago (9-7)
19) Tampa Bay (9-7)
20) Detroit via Dallas (9-7) (Roy Williams deal)

Philly v. Pittsburgh
21) Arizona (9-7)
22) Minnesota (10-6)
23) New England (11-5)
24) Atlanta (11-5)
25) Miami (11-5)
26) Baltimore (11-5)
27) Indianapolis (12-4)
28) New York Giants (12-4)
29) Philadelphia via Carolina (12-4)
30) Tennessee (13-3)
31) Super Bowl Loser (Pittsburgh or Philly)
32) Super Bowl Champion (Pittsburgh or Philly)

Arizona v. Pittsburgh
21) Philadelphia (9-6-1)
22) Minnesota (10-6)
23) New England (11-5)
24) Atlanta (11-5)
25) Miami (11-5)
26) Baltimore (11-5)
27) Indianapolis (12-4)
28) New York Giants (12-4)
29) Philadelphia via Carolina (12-4)
30) Tennessee (13-3)
31) Super Bowl Loser (Pittsburgh or Arizona)
32) Super Bowl Champion (Pittsburgh or Arizona)

Arizona v. Baltimore
21) Philadelphia (9-6-1)
22) Minnesota (10-6)
23) New England (11-5)
24) Atlanta (11-5)
25) Miami (11-5)
26) Indianapolis (12-4)
27) New York Giants (12-4)
28) Philadelphia via Carolina (12-4)
29) Pittsburgh (12-4)
30) Tennessee (13-3)
31) Super Bowl Loser (Baltimore or Arizona)
32) Super Bowl Champion (Baltimore or Arizona)

Philly v. Baltimore
21) Arizona (9-7)
22) Minnesota (10-6)
23) New England (11-5)
24) Atlanta (11-5)
25) Miami (11-5)
26) Indianapolis (12-4)
27) New York Giants (12-4)
28) Philadelphia via Carolina (12-4)
29) Pittsburgh (12-4)
30) Tennessee (13-3)
31) Super Bowl Loser (Baltimore or Philly)
32) Super Bowl Champion (Baltimore or Philly)

The draft tiebreakers are as follows:

1) Super Bowl Winner picks 32nd

2) Super Bowl Loser picks 31st

3) Teams are ranked in inverse order of their record. Ties count as a half win and half loss.

4) A playoff team always picks after a non-playoff team with the same regular season record. If two playoff teams have the same regular season record, but one was eliminated in an earlier round, that team picks first.

5) Ties are then broken using strength of schedule (average of all 16 opponent's winning percentage, divisionmates count twice since they were played twice. Or count the wins of all opponents, same result). Weaker schedule picks earlier.

6) If SOS fails to break the tie, and the teams are in the same division, apply the division playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

7) If SOS fails to break the tie, the teams are not in the same division, but the teams are in the same conference, apply the conference playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

8) If the teams are still tied, or are in different conferences, a coin toss decides the order. If three teams are tied such that the tie can be broken as to two teams, but not between any of those two and a third team, the "loser" of the two-team tie flips against the other team first. A scenario where all three teams are stone tied is nearly impossible since there are only two conferences and intraconference tiebreakers go very deep before a coin flip.

As it currently stands, all ties can be broken using just strength of schedule and assumed playoff exit for still active playoff teams.

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