May 2, 2009

2009 Kentucky Derby Picks without I Want Revenge

A little under ten minutes ago, ESPN reported that 13-I Want Revenge has been scratched from this evening's Kentucky Derby. That's going to lead to some scrambling and erratic betting, so the Derby is even more intriguing from a profit perspective. Here are some amended picks...


Now that we're closer to post time, we have a little more reliable weather forecasting to go by as well. According to The Weather Channel's hour-by-hour forecast, the chance for rain peaks between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m., but it does not look to be a soaker. I am going to assume that we'll see a damp, but not sloppy, track.

Based on internet buzz and the possibility of rain, I think 6-Friesan Fire will now go off at about 3-1 and 16-Pioneer of the Nile will pick up less of the betting slack in the wake of I Want Revenge's refunded tickets. Still, 7-Papa Clem should remain a good value selection at around 12-1 to 15-1. Strict Beyer handicappers might be drawn more to 15-Dunkirk's race-high 108. He remains a wild card, like the UAE horses, due to his lack of experience.

My B-Team horses remain 1-West Side Bernie, 2-Musket Man, 11-Chocolate Candy, 12-General Quarters, 15-Dunkirk, and 16-Pioneer of the Nile. I am reintroducing the synthetic horses now that I don't have to play with I Want Revenge being the clear class of the race.

I think I will shift gears a little and hit hard with exactas that have 6-Friesan Fire and 7-Papa Clem on top. I am thinking $4 6,7 OVER 1,2,6,7,11,12,15,16 for $56. I'll hedge with $2 15 OVER 6,7 to keep us at the original $60 budget.
On a $100 budget, I'd add in a $1 trifecta box of 2, 6, 7, 15 for $24. 2-Musket Man would be a great value exacta winner, so I'd try $2 exactas 2 over 6, 7, 15 for and add him to my Dunkirk hedge for an additional $2. We have $8 to play with, so how about some pot shot trifectas? Let's try $1 on 6, 7 over 1, 2, 15, 16 over 6, 7 for the rest of it.
On a $200 budget I'd play $50 to win and $50 to place on 7-Papa Clem.


With I Want Revenge Out, the race becomes much more fo a crapshoot. I'm going to stick with my original picks, and just drop out I Want Revenge. The strategy here is to take horses that look pretty good and are likely to go off at decent odds.

I'll take a $2 box exacta on the long shots - Musket Man, Hold Me Back, Papa Clem, and Desert Party. That's a $24 bet.

5 Responses:

Jeremy said...

No amendment to my pick. Capitals in 6.

PlantingaSeedNow said...

I love, love your post...I'm getting ready to head to the local racetrack...I usually go to the Derby, but this year's budget won't allow...I too think Prado could possibly suprise....Stop by and plant your seed...Good luck...

Russell said...

With the track conditions I'm seeing on TV, you have to think Friesan Fire is the heavy favorite. I still like the Exacta of Friesan Fire with the field, since it's very hard to predict how these horses will respond to mud in their faces in a 19 horse field.

J-Red said...

With 40 minutes to post and seeing the track conditions...

6-7-15 are the A-Team

1-2-12 are the B-Team

Everyone else would need help.

brew said...

Here is the 2009 Kentucky Derby Race / Post Time.
The video from the scene:
Kentucky Derby-news!!!

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