November 21, 2007

Week 12 NFL Against the Spread Picks

It's Week 12 and the human standings are finally tightening up. This week marks the beginning of Thursday games, with a three-game Thanksgiving slate. Thanks to NFL Network, that means there will be a game each week you probably can't watch. Enjoy that.

Brien (26-27-2 for .491)

Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT - The Packers are 8-1-1 ATS, and the Lions are coming off two straight losses. It's time to reassess just how good we think Detroit really is (answer: not that good).

CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Houston - This is probably your last chance to get the Browns at a bargain basement number like this.

TAMPA BAY (-3.5) over Washington - I know the Redskins looked good last week, but they always play their best against the Cowboys.

SAN DIEGO (-9.5) over Baltimore

NEW ENGLAND (-21) over Philadelphia
So far this year, there have been two "sure thing" bets every week. The one everyone knows about is that New England has covered every week except one. The lesser known sure thing bet is that the Ravens will fail to cover. Baltimore is 1-9 ATS this season. Interestingly, the only time I've picked the Patriots is the one time they failed to cover. Also, the one time I picked against the Ravens is the one time they did cover. This week I'm going to ride the sure things and try not to jinx it again.

Jeremy and Magic 8 (27-22-6 for .545, 32-17-6 for .636)

Jeremy's Picks:

Jason thinks he's going to catch up to me. It's going to kill him if I finish with an above .500 record, let alone if I finish ahead of him. Plus he's already bitter because he's no longer single. AND he grows another year older next week. That truckload of antidepressants can just roll to his place in Essex. [J-Red's Note: I live in Halethorpe, not Essex. Asshat. Plus, I'm younger than you. Plus, I'm not married. Now about those antidepressants...] On to the picks, with some very non-traditional matchups and odd lines this week...

Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT - The Packers are positively on fire, and despite the Lions playing well at home and being used to the Thanksgiving schedule, I think the Pack covers this spread.

Oakland (+6) over KANSAS CITY - The Chiefs homefield advantage will be strong for this rivalry game, but the Raiders D will be tough for the Chief's third string RB, and Brodie Croyle isn't who you want to limit your offense to. Did you see Hard Knocks?

CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Houston - Schaub to Johnson is a very viable offensive combination (better than Boller to Darling), but I see Cleveland taking another step towards making their season even more improbable.

GIANTS (-7) over Minnesota - If you don't think the Giants will be rushing seven or eight every play, you're insane. I'd love to see an over/under on their sack total.

And finally, what I swore I would not do...

Washington (+3.5) over TAMPA BAY - The Garcia to Galloway threat isn't going to pose as much of a problem for the 'Skins depleted secondary, and if Jason Campbell plays this Sunday the way he did last Sunday, 'Skins should win straight up.

BONUS PICK!!! It's the Grey Cup. The GREY CUP!!! I wonder how many people are going to find themselves having earned a free triop to Toronto for this game because when they entered a sweepstakes for "the Big Football Game" assuming it was the Super Bowl because the NFL Promo people won't let that term be used.

Winnipeg (+11) over Saskatchewan - Eveyone knows that it's an easier trip from Manitoba to Ontario than it is from Saskatchewan to Ontario. Look for the Rogers Centre to be taken over by Blue Bombers fans.

Magic 8 Ball Picks:
Is now the appropriate time for me to let you all know that this is really Brandon Lang from Two for the Money making these picks?

DETROIT (-3.5) over Green Bay - "My sources say yes." [Lions beat spread]

Oakland (+6) over KANSAS CITY - "No." [Chiefs won't beat spread]

CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Houston - "Signs point to yes." [Browns beat spread]

GIANTS (-7) over Minnesota - "My sources say yes." [Giants beat spread]

TAMPA BAY (-3.5) over Washington - "Signs point to yes." [Bucs beat spread]

J-Red (26-26-3 for .500)

I'm off the Detroit bandwagon. Even at home on Thanksgiving, I can't trust a team that can't put points on the Giants or Cardinals. I'm also not touching the Ravens @ SD without the extra half point to bump it to 10, though I think the Ravens might win the battle of the worst playcallers. Picks time:

Denver (+2.5) over CHICAGO - This is my new bandwagon. I watched the Donks Sunday night, and Cutler looks like he finally gets it. Does that mean he'll throw in a second-year QB road clunker? Probably, but we're talking about Rex Grossman on the other side.

DALLAS (-14) over NY Jets - I still love Dallas. They seem to like to punish people and it's national TV for TO.

JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) over Buffalo - Jacksonville and Tennessee are the two teams that just keep winning. I don't know if that's testament to Jeff Fisher and Jack Del Rio or what, but I'm done questioning it.

TAMPA BAY (-3.5) over Washington - I can't explain TB either.

Wow, these lines are bad. I guess I'll take...

NEW ENGLAND (-21) over Philadelphia - If it weren't for the fact that Philly is 5-5 (and thus in 3rd in the NFC East), I'd say they were a throw-in-the-towel candidate. In fact, Philly and Washington are about equal, so I'll use that as my guide.

And my Grey Cup pick is Saskatchewan (-11) over Winnipeg. Saskatchewan has former UNC QB Darian Durant and a Tulane player I've never heard of. Winnipeg has no one I've ever heard of.

Russell (24-29-2 for .454)

This week's spreads are just ugly, with 5 of 10 pts or more. "Parity" is clearly abundant, or more realistically, the bad teams this year are really, really bad.

DETROIT (+3.5) over Green Bay - I'm not getting off the Lions bandwagon when I just got on. The Lions secondary has lots of picks and who better to throw some in a dome than Brett? Also, I think the short week benefits the Lions with the Mike Martz offense.

Indianapolis (-11.5) over ATLANTA - I don't care how bad the Colts have looked, the Falcons can make anyone healthy. Plus Peyton is due.

PITTSBURGH (-16) over Miami - Huge spread, but after losing to the Jets, the Steelers will be fired up for MNF at home.

KANSAS CITY (-6) over Oakland - Don't look now, but KC's pretty good. Oakland can't stop the run.

Buffalo (+7.5) over JAX - The Jags don't blow people out, and other than the Pats debacle, the Bills have been playing really well.


Brien - CLE, GB, NE, SD, TB
Jeremy - CLE, GB, NYG, OAK, WAS
Russell - BUF, DET, KC, IND, PIT
Magic 8 - CLE, DET, NYG, OAK, TB


Magic 8 (32-17-6 for .636)
Jeremy (27-22-6 for .545)
J-Red (26-26-3 for .500)
Brien (26-27-2 for .491)
Russell (24-29-2 for .454)

6 Responses:

J-Red said...

I like how Jeremy mentioned all the non-traditional matchups, but then proceeded to pick:

Two divisional games (GB/DET, OAK/KC)

One former divisional game (CLE/HOU for two decades)

One NFC Championship pairing from 2000/01 (NYG/MIN)

One matchup that has occurred twice in the playoffs since 1999. (WAS/TB)

So Saints/Ravens these are not.

J-Red said...

Correction, due to comparable-record intraconference slotting, the Skins and Bucs have met three times in the last four years, including last year's playoff win for the Skins. In 1999-2000, the Skins lost in the playoffs to the Bucs on the late Turk's bad snap.

Jeremy said...

I don't equate this Browns-Texans game with a Bernie Kosar-Warren Moon showdown.

And I put you in Essex because I didn't want to give out your true location. And I figured I'd get you some sympathy points.

J-Red said...

Halethorpe is about the most anonymous place you can live in Maryland. 90% of the state couldn't find it on a map.

Russell said...

Winnipeg also has a hurt starting QB.

Jeremy said...

2-3. Yikes. Time for everyone to make their move on me. And I am never, ever, fucking ever, picking a Redskins game for the rest of the season. One of our intrepid readers can go back and see my record in picking 'Skins games when I was stupid enough to do so, but I have to think it's 0-for-life.

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