March 13, 2008

Bubbles Bursting Nationwide

The Wildcats spent all day at the line, but couldn't top the Hoyas (AP: Frank Franklin II)

In the noon games, the #1 seeds held their own. G'Town weathered a strong early second half run to beat Villanova (soundly by the end), and Xavier held off Dayton. Villanova appears NIT-bound, while Dayton might be able to hang around a little because of strong computer numbers. Today's Bubble Watch on ESPN has a really good breakdown of the tiers of bubble teams, and compared Dayton's numbers to UK's.

Texas Tech and Wake Forest had slipped out of the conversation for the most part after finishing 7-9 in conference, but first round losses by both made their NIT berths official.

In C-USA, #2 seed UAB (a bubblicious RPI of 49) lost in OT to Tulsa, crushing the Blazers' hopes for an at-large. Note that this leaves the door wide open for Houston to make the finals and play Memphis, but C-USA is probably a one-bid league now.

UPDATE (5:30): Arizona State has joined the bubble losers. The Sun Devils' egregious non-conference SOS is their real problem with respect to the committee, and it may be their undoing. 9-9 in conference is impressive in the Pac-10, but an RPI of 74 before this loss is not. They're out if anyone else can make a move.

UPDATE (6:15): C-USA's other at-large hopeful Houston has also lost in the quarters. As long as Memphis holds serve against the C-USA minnows, C-USA is now a one-bid league.

Also, Baylor's first round loss to Colorado is a really bad loss, but I don't think it puts them back on the bubble since all the bubble teams are losing too.

UPDATE (11:30): The late games provided bubble destruction. Maryland, Florida, UMass, and Oregon all lost, the first three to teams that will not get at-large bids. Teams that were in before today have to feel great, even if they lost. Another sad day for the Terps. The A-10 might be a one-bid league. The defending champs will not get a chance to defend their title.

Not to be outdone, add Ole Miss to that list, losing to lowly Georgia in OT.

UPDATE (LATE): In the wee hours, Arizona and New Mexico both lost as well, finishing up a terrible day for bubble teams. I think the Lobos are definitely out, but Arizona has a pretty good shot still. Their strength of schedule should outweigh the 14 losses.

For those of you keeping track at home, that's 7 losses by teams right on the line, and two by teams on the outside edge. The five wins by bubble teams today: Texas A&M, UNLV, Florida St., Temple and St. Joseph's.

Tomorrow is sure to end more dreams.

1 Responses:

J-Red said...

If Maryland was anywhere near the bubble, they're making NIT plans now.

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