October 2, 2007

Week 6 CFB Picks

After a week of upsets, there is an exciting lineup of games which will separate the contenders from the pretenders, "Blockbuster Week". With that in mind, I'm focusing on the matchups that matter for conference titles. Rankings shown are AP, spreads from Sheridan.

#9 Florida (+9) over #1 LSU - I'm certainly not questioning LSU's talent, but Florida was embarassed last week. Urban is not a fan of being embarassed and LSU will feel the brunt of that wrath. Florida's run defense has been suspect so far, and that's my biggest concern with this pick. Even though everyone seems to like LSU in this game, I think there's a little bit of a danger they overlook the defending champs. Sound hard to believe? We'll see. It will be fascinating to watch.

#4 Ohio State (-6.5) over #23 PURDUE - Ohio State has had the luxury of an easy opening schedule. They've gained confidence, got a couple road wins, and will torch Purdue, and have become a really good team. It's hard to pass the ball when you're running for your life, which is what Painter will be doing all game.

#5 Wisconsin (+2.5) over ILLINOIS - Definitely a WTF line for me. I know Wisconsin has not impressed but any team that has only lost once since the start of last season is my pick when getting points against an unranked, unproven, inexperienced team.

#8 Kentucky (+4) over #11 SOUTH CAROLINA - Kentucky has one of the most balanced offenses in the country, and without Jasper (or Casper, I forget), SC will give up some points. If SC struggled with Miss St, it should be a really long day against Kentucky.

#10 Oklahoma (-10.5) over #19 TEXAS - Read my lips: BLOWOUT. This will go about how the Oklahoma - Miami game went a couple weeks ago. They'll be discussing those 60+ point Oklahoma victories from 4 or 5 years ago from about the 2nd quarter on.

#12 Georgia (+2) over TENNESSEE - This pains me, as a Tech student, but Mark Richt is much smarter than Fulmer, and he has a better team.

#22 CLEMSON (-5.5) over #15 Va Tech - Both teams are overrated, substantially. That said, Tyrod's first real game, on the road in Death Valley, could be a struggle. Expect a low scoring affair unless Clemson rekindles their offense. That's right, I took a home team.

#17 MISSOURI (-7) over #25 Nebraska - This spread is larger that I would like, but Missouri is better than most people think. Wins over Illinois and Ole Miss don't look so bad. Nebraska gave up 40+ to Ball State, and Missouri can score with the best of them.

#21 RUTGERS (-3.5) over #22 Cincinnati - Rutgers recovers from last week, and Cinci hasn't played anyone. Ray Rice has a big game.

And a bonus pick from the MD grad who's now attending GT,
MARYLAND (+3) over Ga Tech - MD pulls out a very low scoring game. MD can't block GT's blitzes, but Tech has no offense. The only Tech TD last week was off a blocked punt which gave them the ball in the red zone. The Terps played well last week against a good team and will keep it going.

Last Week: 3-4-0
Season: 15-13-0

6 Responses:

michael said...

Wait, what? Wisconsin is PLUS 2.5 at Illinois?!? Yeah, if this were the NFL, I would be hauling ass in the opposite direction on that one. In college? I am not gonna touch that with a 40 foot pole.

"ben" said...

I'm confused. You think something is wrong with that line? Looks about right to me.

J-Red said...

Bet the house on Cincy going to Rutgers. Who, exactly, has Rutgers played? Cincy has an excellent QB (Mauk) and a ton of capable RBs, just like Maryland.

Cincy is averaging 4.6 per rush (many in blowouts while clock killing) and has four players with more than 30 carries this season, all four over 100 yards.

Rutgers is soft up the middle. Cincy should get up early and run it out.

"ben" said...

Michigan is favored over Eastern by 32.


Benjamin said...

I don't quite get the Wisconsin/Illinois line. Why is Wisconsin GETTING points? Yeah, granted, they kinda suck, but so do the Illini! Wisconsin's ranked, and wouldn't that kind of indicate they're better than Illinois? Or is this one of those stupid lines built exclusively to try to get nice and even betting? Did I mention I hate gambling?

"ben" said...

Any more questions about the Wisc-Ill line?

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