November 8, 2007

Week 10 NFL Against the Spread Picks

The race is heating up with three of the four human pickers within two games of each other. Now J-Red and Jeremy are both above .500, with Brien only a couple games back.

Brien (21-23-1)

With Jax @ Tenn and Denver @ KC off the board, it's going to be tough to find 5 games to pick. [Since Brien submitted his picks, the lines are Jax +4 TENN and Den +3.5 KC] I've never understood why Vegas refuses to post lines for some NFL games. I know that sometimes there's uncertainty about injured players, but it seems like they should be able to post a fair line and then change it quickly once news comes out about the injury.

Buffalo (-3) over MIAMI - I think the Dolphins will win a game this year, but not this week. The Bills looked good last week at Cincinnati, and I hear this week they're thinking about starting Marshawn Lynch at quarterback.

Detroit (+1) over ARIZONA - This is probably my last chance to jump on the Lions bandwagon before Vegas figures out that they're finally decent.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over SAN DIEGO - The Chargers gave up 296 yards on the ground to Adrian Peterson. Joseph Addai looked unstoppable against the Patriots defense. This one shouldn't be close. [J-Red notes that Luis Castillo is also out for SD]

GREEN BAY (-6) over Minnesota - The Packers won't let Peterson run free like he did last week.

Dallas (-1) over NY GIANTS - The Giants are turning their season around, but I still think the Cowboys are a better team.

Jeremy and Magic 8 Ball (21-19-5 and 25-15-5)

Little does the ECB readership know that we make our picks on Wednesday evening. Thus, last week was the second straight week I got nailed in one of my games by late injury scratches. Last week was the Ravens-Steelers (thank you Heap, Rolle, McAlister). In this week's picks, much like the abused wife who finally picks up a shotgun and blows her husband to pieces, I'm finally going to stop trying to bet on the Redskins game, because no matter which way I go, it's a guaranteed loss. On to the picks...

Detroit (+1) over ARIZONA - Are you kidding me? The Lions are about the hottest team in the league. This is some serious disrespect. I was going to go with J-Red and take the Lions bandwagon for a ride anyway.

Dallas (-1) over NEW YORK GIANTS - The Giants have had a good run, but the Cowboys are head-and-shoulders the better team.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over SAN DIEGO - This is a very low spread for a team that was beating the Pats for 57 minutes last week.

GREEN BAY (-6) over Minnesota - Listen, Adrian Peterson is very, very good... but it's outside at Lambeau, it's this rivalry, and Tavaris Jackson/Brooks Bollinger is actually going to have to contribute this week.

Cleveland (+9.5) over PITTSBURGH - I'm going to take the Browns bandwagon for a spin... their D will be much more disruptive than the Ravens decimated secondary.

Magic 8 Ball Picks:

ARIZONA (-1) over Detroit - "Yes." [Cardinals will beat the spread]

Dallas (-1) over NEW YORK GIANTS - "No." [Giants will not beat spread]

SAN DIEGO (+3.5) over Indianapolis - "Signs point to yes." [Chargers will beat spread]

Minnesota (+6) over GREEN BAY - "Don't count on it." [Packers will not beat spread]

PITTSBURGH (-9.5) over Cleveland - "Yes." [Steelers will beat spread]

J-Red (22-21-2)

There are lots of good divisional matchups this weekend. I can't avoid most of them.

Detroit (+1) over ARIZONA - This is the least good I've felt about the Lions the past five weeks. It's on the road and they are somewhat susceptible to the run.

Dallas (-1) over NY GIANTS - This should be a great game, especially if you own TO, Witten, Plaxico, and/or Shockley.

NEW ORLEANS (-12) over St. Louis - I'm only taking this game because I said last week I was going to ride Detroit, Dallas and New Orleans. I feel likely to be burned.

Cleveland (+9.5) over PITT - It will never be as easy as Monday Night for the Steelers. This is a true divisional matchup that is constantly unpredictable, and that's in years where the Browns suck. This year they don't, and they shouldn't be getting 9+ in any AFC North game.

Buffalo (-3) over MIAMI - In Marshawn I trust. Losman to Lee Evans is getting going too.

Russell (ERR: Integer divide by 0)

J-Red's been riding Dallas and Detroit, but I think they're both sucker lines this week so I'm going the other way.

ARIZONA (-1) over Detroit - Detroit is only 2-2 on the road this year (wins over OAK and CHI), while AZ has beaten PIT and SEA at home and the only home loss was the Tim Rattay game when he came in totally cold.

NY GIANTS (+1) over Dallas - There's no doubt in my mind that Dallasis the better team, but the spread is ridiculous and I think the Giants D is a little mad about that 45 spot they gave up opening night.

Cincy (+4.5) over BALTIMORE - The Ravens are still pretty dinged up, and even if everyone plays, I doubt it will be at 100% [J-Red's note: Samari Rolle is out]. The Ravens lost a horribly ugly game at Cincy in week 1, and there's no reason to believe anything will be better for the Ravens.

SEATTLE (-9.5) over San Fran - SF hasn't thrown for more than 200 yds in any game, and Gore is hurt. They just lost at ATL, and that's really bad. Seattle's easily good enough to get this done.

GREEN BAY (-6) over Minnesota - While Brooks Bollinger probably improves the offense, I think there's too much Favre at Lambeau for the Vikings secondary. Green Bay's already seen AD, and did enough to win. Given how Favre does in the Dome, this figures to go even better.

Recap and Standings

Magic 8 (25-15-5 for .611) - ARI, DAL, MIN, PIT, SD
Jeremy (21-19-5 for .522) - CLE, DAL, DET, GB, IND
J-Red (22-21-2 for .511) - BUF, CLE, DAL, DET, NO
Brien (21-23-1 for .478) - BUF, DAL, DET, GB, IND
Russell (18-26-1 for .411) - ARI, CIN, GB, NYG, SEA

3 Responses:

Russell said...

Keeping an eye on the betting trends, DET and DAL are both getting 93% of the action. Looks like those bandwagons are pretty crowded, but Vegas has been wrong before.

J-Red said...

I'm not convinced that site is entirely accurate. Or, more to the point, I'm not convinced there isn't a shitton of action on Sunday from people making up for NCAA losses. A couple huge bets here and there might skew the numbers.

"ben" said...

I traded Adrian Peterson (the good one) after his first really freakishly good game. I think I made a mistake. Fortunately, it's not a keeper league.

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