January 3, 2010

2010 NFL Draft Order After Regular Season

The NFL's regular season is over, and 20 teams are already looking towards the 2010 NFL Draft. The tiebreaking procedures differ from the playoff rules, since the worst team is generally rewarded with the best pick. The full NFL Draft tiebreakers are below, but generally the worst record picks earlier. If teams have the same record, the team with the easier schedule picks ahead of the team with the harder schedule. It gets more complicated with playoff teams, but I projected the lower seed to lose each game.

The first 20 spots are locked in, but the remaining slots can still change depending on the playoff results. Team record and strength of schedule (SOS) are in parentheses.

1) St. Louis (1-15, .520)
2) Detroit (2-14, .523)
3) Tampa Bay (3-13, .555)
4) Washington (4-12, .492)
5) Kansas City (4-12, .516)
6) Seattle (5-11, .477)
7) Cleveland (5-11, .512)
8) Oakland (5-11, .527)
9) Buffalo (6-10, .516)
10-11) Chicago (7-9, .496)
10-11) Jacksonville (7-9, .496)
12) Miami (7-9, .559)
13) San Francisco (8-8, .477)
14) Denver (8-8, .527)
15) NY Giants (8-8, .535)
16-17) Tennessee (8-8, .539)
16-17) Carolina (8-8, .539)
18) Pittsburgh (9-7, .488)
19-20) Atlanta (9-7, .504)
19-20) Houston (9-7, .504)

Subject to Change:
21) New York Jets (9-7, .516)
22) Baltimore (9-7, .523)
23) Arizona (10-6, .445)
24) Cincinnati (10-6, .492)
25) New England (10-6, .516)
26) Green Bay (11-5, .441)
27) Philadelphia (11-5, .484)
28) Dallas (11-5, .488)
29) Minnesota (12-4, .441)
30) San Diego (13-3, .453)
31) New Orleans (13-3, .426) [Super Bowl Loser]
32) Indianapolis (14-2, .473) [Super Bowl Winner]

The three ties will be decided by coin flip prior to the draft because all three involve teams from two different conferences.

Tiebreaking Procedures

The draft tiebreakers are as follows:

1) Super Bowl Winner picks 32nd

2) Super Bowl Loser picks 31st

3) Teams are ranked in inverse order of their record. Ties count as a half win and half loss.

4) A playoff team always picks after a non-playoff team with the same regular season record. If two playoff teams have the same regular season record, but one was eliminated in an earlier round, that team picks first.

5) Ties are then broken using strength of schedule (average of all 16 opponent's winning percentage, divisionmates count twice since they were played twice. Or count the wins of all opponents, same result). Weaker schedule picks earlier.

6) If SOS fails to break the tie, and the teams are in the same division, apply the division playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

7) If SOS fails to break the tie, the teams are not in the same division, but the teams are in the same conference, apply the conference playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

8) If the teams are still tied, or are in different conferences, a coin toss decides the order. If three teams are tied such that the tie can be broken as to two teams, but not between any of those two and a third team, the "loser" of the two-team tie flips against the other team first. A scenario where all three teams are stone tied is nearly impossible since there are only two conferences and intraconference tiebreakers go very deep before a coin flip.

2009 NFL Strength of Schedule After Regular Season

1) Miami (.559)
2) Tampa Bay (.555)
3) Carolina (.539)
3) Tennessee (.539)
5) NY Giants (.535)
6) Denver (.527)
6) Oakland (.527)
8) Baltimore (.523)
8) Detroit (.523)
10) St. Louis (.520)
11) NY Jets (.516)
11) Kansas City (.516)
11) Buffalo (.516)
11) New England (.516)
15) Cleveland (.512)
16) Houston (.504)
16) Atlanta (.504)
18) Chicago (.496)
18) Jacksonville (.496)
20) Cincinnati (.492)
20) Washington (.492)
22) Dallas (.488)
22) Pittsburgh (.488)
24) Philadelphia (.484)
25) San Francisco (.477)
25) Seattle (.477)
27) Indianapolis (.473)
28) San Diego (.453)
29) Arizona (.445)
30) Green Bay (.441)
30) Minnesota (.441)
32) New Orleans (.426)

2 Responses:

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