February 14, 2008

ACC Bubble Watch

Bubble teams are losing left and right, and the ACC bubble hopes are fading quickly as the top teams continue to win. Six teams are officially out barring a miracle (at best, no more than one more loss to have a chance).

IN: Duke, North Carolina

OUT: Virginia (11-12, 1-9), Georgia Tech (11-12, 4-5), Wake Forest (15-8, 5-5), Florida State (14-11, 3-7), Boston College (13-10, 4-6), Virginia Tech (14-10, 5-5)

Clemson (18-6, 6-4, RPI: 24, SOS: 25): The Tigers have survived the toughest part of their schedule, and should be able to coast on in. A 9-7 finish in the ACC should make them a lock, and that would be a disappointing finish given their remaining schedule.

Maryland (16-9, 6-4, RPI: 51, SOS: 13): One of the hottest teams in the country, two losses to Duke are the only recent blemishes. The Terps are capable of winning out and claiming a decent seed, but a couple losses could leave them squarely on the bubble. 10-6 is still the necessary conference record to feel comfortable.

NC State (15-9, 4-6, RPI: 47, SOS: 44): Fading fast, the Wolfpack has the computer numbers to make it, but the schedule looks rough. They need to beat at least one of Clemson, Duke, or UNC at home, and sweep the rest to get to 8-8 in conference. Even that may not be enough because some of the teams that are out may finish in front of them in the conference standings, which won't help.

Miami (15-7, 3-6, RPI: 40, SOS: 38): In a free-fall but their victory on the road at the Hokies could be a turning point. The Canes probably need to finish 5-2 over the last 7 to get in, and it's possible given their schedule. The question is which team will show up. The way they've played most of the conference schedule, they'll finish 6-10 and decidedly out.

More losses by teams on the bubble to help these ACC teams: Cal, UMass

2 Responses:

Jeff V said...

Isn't it a little early to count out Wake and VT?

they're 5 and 5 in the ACC so they would probably need 5 wins a piece to clinch in the regular season.

But don't forget the ACC tournament...if they were 9-7 and each won 2 games in the ACC tourney that would be a berth no?

That means they need to win 6 of their next 10...isn't that doable?

Russell said...

I don't think that would be enough, given the lack of strong non-conference wins and the bad computer numbers.

To make it worse, the way the ACC tournament is set up right now, a win in the first round is almost meaningless because it would be against one of the worst teams in the conference. A second victory, against one of the top 4, would be meaningful, but still might not be enough.

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