October 2, 2009

NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

Welcome to Week 4. From a Baltimore-Washington football perspective, in Landover, 10,000 fans are showing up to the 'Skins-Bucs game with brown paper bags. Meanwhile, 30 miles up the road in Baltimore, a city is trying to not get too giddy over the fact that they appear to have the best team in the NFL (at least through 3 weeks). From a fantasy perspective, check your lineups - byes begin this week. On to the picks:

Brien (7-8-0)
I had a great week last week, but it still didn't get me to .500

NEW ENGLAND (-2) over Baltimore - I think the Ravens are very good this year, but after seeing how a good passing game can pick apart the Baltimore secondary (in the Chargers game), I'll go with Tom Brady.

MIAMI (+2) over Buffalo - The Bills haven't done anything to make me think they deserve to be giving points on the road.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over St. Louis - The Rams appear to be very, very bad.

MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Green Bay - This is the biggest Vikings game in years.

San Diego (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
- I don't have nearly that kind of confidence in the Steelers this year.

Jason (9-6-0)

Still clinging to a decent record (but nowhere near as nice as mine in the work pool)

INDIANAPOLIS (-10.5) over Seattle - I got to watch the NFL Network replay of Seattle-Chicago last night. Seneca's only success came rolling to his right. If I noticed....

Tampa Bay (+7) over WASHINGTON - Picking games between bad teams is tough, but I'm not giving Washington credit for even scoring 7 points.

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over New York Jets - I think the Jets' streak comes to an end in New Orleans because the Saints have some of the best pass-catching backs in the league. Add Jeremy Shockey, and pressure on Brees might backfire.

San Diego (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH - The fans turn on the home team early in the game. They might fight back, but not to win by 7.

Cincinnati (-5.5) over CLEVELAND - In the past, the Bengals would drop this game. This team seems more focused and centered on a healthy Carson Palmer.

Jeremy (5-10-0)

Hey, a week when I went above .500 is damn near a cause for celebration.

WASHINGTON (-7) over Tampa Bay - Tampa put up under 90 yards of total offense last week. This week they give the ball to a second-year QB making his first-ever start on the road. Of course, this pick assumes the 'Skins can actually put up points.

Baltimore (+2) over NEW ENGLAND - This is essentially a pick 'em, just giving the Pats points for being at home. Brady's timing still looks pretty off with Moss. And he won't have much time this weekend in the pocket.

Dallas (-3) over DENVER - The Broncos... the biggest 3-0 fraud possibly in the history of the NFL. 16 points allowed in three games good. Playing the Bengals, the Browns, and the Raiders brings that into perspective.

Buffalo (-2) over MIAMI - The heat could play a factor in this game, but doubtful. I'm thinking the general suckiness of Chad Henne will play more a factor.

MINNESOTA (-3) over Green Bay - The Favre Bowl. Favre + Adrian Peterson only giving up three points at home? In a grudge match for Favre? Yes please.

Magic 8 Ball (5-10-0)
Note from Jeremy - I swear that I shook it.

WASHINGTON (-7) over Tampa Bay - "Yes." (Redskins will beat the spread)
Baltimore (+2) over NEW ENGLAND - "My answer is no." (Patriots won't beat the spread)
Dallas (-3) over DENVER - "My answer is no." (Broncos won't beat the spread)
Buffalo (-2) over MIAMI - "My answer is no." (Dolphins won't beat the spread)
Green Bay (+3) over MINNESOTA - "Don't count on it." (Vikings won't beat the spread)

Russell (7-8-0)
Clinging to a tie for second...

Dallas (-3) over DENVER - Even though the Broncos are 3-0, let's remember who they've played and how Week 1 should have ended for them.

SAN FRAN (-9.5) over St Louis - I think the 49ers are for real, esp at home over the Rams.

INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Seattle - Even without Freeney, the Colts will dominate.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) over WASHINGTON - What have the Skins done to be favored over anyone?

NY Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY - The Chiefs look bad.

Brien: NE, MIA, SD, SF, MIN
Jason: IND, TB, NO, SD, CIN
Russell: DAL, SF, IND, TB, NYG

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