November 29, 2007

Week 13 NFL Against the Spread Picks

There are only a few weeks left to catch Jeremy. Friendly fantasy reminder: there's a big game tonight that you won't be able to see.

Brien (30-28-2, .517)

Since last week went so well (4-1), I'll be taking teams with good ATS records again this week.

Green Bay (+7) over DALLAS - The Packers are 9-1-1 ATS, and I think spotting Brett Favre a touchdown in a huge night game is a bad idea.

Cleveland (pk) over ARIZONA - Remember last week, when I said that was the last week that Vegas would underestimate the Browns? I was wrong. They did it again this week.

Tampa Bay (+3) over NEW ORLEANS - The Bucs are another team that has been consistently underestimated this year. Quite the opposite is true of the Saints: every time they win a game, the sports world is ready to believe that they've turned their season around. It's not going to happen. Tampa Bay is just a better team this year.

MINNESOTA (-3) over Detroit - The Lions bandwagon is a distant memory at this point.

New England (-20) over BALTIMORE - I hate to pick in a game with such a large number, and I hate to go against a home team on Monday night trying so save a little bit of pride. But if there's one thing we've learned this season, it's that the Ravens never cover. If there's two things we've learned this season, it's that the Patriots almost always DO cover. You're also not likely to see New England lay two eggs in a row on nationally televised games.

Jeremy and Magic 8 Ball (30-24-6, .550; 35-19-6, .633)

Jeremy's Picks:
Helllllloooo... J-Red.... how's the weather way back there?

DALLAS (-7) over Green Bay - I hate that the Cowboys are this good. Really, I do.

Cleveland (PK) over ARIZONA - This is definitely a weird spread... a Cards team that lost to the Niners in overtime against one of the most potent offenses in the NFL? I guess the University of Phoenix Stadium is worth a lot to Vegas these days.

Jets (+1) over MIAMI - With a spread this low, essentially a pick'em game. The 'Fins are playing essentially running back less at a stadium that will be filled with transplanted New Yorkers. The Pittsburgh mud made the 'Fins D look much better than it is.

MINNESOTA (-3) over Detroit - After how quickly they dispatched Eli and the Giants last week, I like Minnesota in this one. They're playing very well.

San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY - L.T. is due for a huge game. The Chiefs just might give it to him. Weather might be a factor in this game though (snow possible) and if it is, I wish I could take back this pick.

Magic 8 Ball Picks:
Another week of games, another week with a winning record. You all are boring me.

DALLAS (-7) over Green Bay - "My sources say yes." [Cowboys beat spread]

Cleveland (pk) over ARIZONA - "No." [Cardinals won't beat spread]

Miami (-1) over New York Jets - "Signs point to yes." [Dolphins beat spread]

Detroit (+3) over MINNESOTA - "Don't count on it." [Vikings won't beat spread]

KANSAS CITY (+5) over San Diego - "Signs point to yes." [Chiefs beat spread]

J-Red (29-28-3 for .508)

After the debacle in Pittsburgh Monday night, I'm going to share a link with everyone. From the pulldown, you can get the game-day weather forecast for every team.

Buffalo (+6) over WASHINGTON - I can't see how the Skins can use Sean Taylor's death has a motivational tool. Even though Buffalo is a bad team with a decent record, I think the Skins will start slow after a draining week.

MIAMI (-1) over New York Jets - This is my heart. I really want the Dolphins to win a game before the Ravens play them. This seems like a good opportunity against a bad team in division. Plus, some no-name running back is going to have a chance to shine.

Denver (-3.5) over OAKLAND - My new bandwagon is off to a bad start, but they should bounce back.

Jacksonville (+7) over INDY - Jax plays Indy tough, and now they have a quarterback who can actually attempt some kind of comeback if the need arises.

TENNESSEE (-4) over Houston - I don't know why. Maybe Vince is still mad at the Texans.

Russell (25-33-2, .433)

DALLAS (-7) over Green Bay - The Boys overwhelm an injured, inexperienced Pack, though I would love to see a Pack victory.

San Francisco (+2.5) over CAROLINA - The Panthers haven't won a game at home all year, and SF has played relatively well the last few weeks.

Tampa Bay (+3) over NEW ORLEANS - The Bucs just keep winning...

MINNESOTA (-3) over Detroit - Now I'm off the bandwagon too... Plus AD is back.

WASHINGTON (-6) over Buffalo - The Skins have been good at home, and this will be an emotional game, dedicated to 21.

Recap and Standings

Brien - CLE, GB, MIN, NE, TB
Jeremy - CLE, DAL, MIN, NYJ, SD
Russell - DAL, MIN, SF, TB, WAS
Magic 8 - CLE, DAL, DET, KC, MIA

Magic 8 (35-19-6 for .633)
Jeremy (30-24-6 for .550)
Brien (30-28-2 for .517 -- 2 GB)
J-Red (29-28-3 for .508 -- 2.5 GB)
Russell (25-33-2 for .433 -- 7 GB)

2 Responses:

J-Red said...

For the record, I am just taking a one-week break from the Dallas bandwagon. Dallas by 7 is exactly what I would predict, so Vegas got it right.

Also, if we weren't picking on Thursday, I'd probably take New England. I know there's rain forecast for Sunday, and I'm worried it'll be windy Monday night.

Russell said...

If Barber had gotten one more yard, you would have been exactly right.

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