September 18, 2007

Week 2 - Picks Against the Spread

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner! In a crazy Week 2, only Jeremy squeaked some cash out of Vegas.

I'm beginning to wonder if I pimped Brien too early.

Last Thursday, I said that Week 2 is the worst week of the year for against the spread betting. You think you know something, but it's all based on what you think you know about the Week 1 opponent. Sure Houston looked good, but I've formed better turds than KC. Turns out Houston and their brother turd in Washington might not be so bad.

And the records reflect the same. Here are the painful results (italics indicate unpredictable bad luck which in no way reflects on the prognosticator's skill.)

Brien: (2-3 this week, 4-6 overall)
Cincy, New Orleans, Denver, Atlanta, Houston

Jeremy: (3-2 this week, 6-3-1 overall)
Chicago, New Orleans, Arizona, Dallas, Washington

J-Red: (2-3 this week, 6-4 overall)
Cincy, Detroit, New Orleans, Green Bay, Tennessee

Magic 8-Ball: (3-2 this week, 5-4-1 overall)
Philly, Seattle, Dallas, KC, Tampa Bay

Russell: (2-3 this week, 3-7 overall)
Cincy, Detroit, New Orleans, Dallas, Green Bay

Jeremy: 6-3-1
J-Red: 6-4-0
Magic 8-Ball: 5-4-1
Brien: 4-6
Russell: 3-7

Survivor Standings
Brien forgot to submit a team, [CORRECTION: Someone else forgot, Brien already lost] which means he was the only person who wasn't wrong (and the only one eliminated). The other participants all selected Cincy or New Orleans, and since all were wrong everyone (who submitted a team) is alive.

It's like the spelling bee in that way, except all the participants lost their virginity prior to turning 30. Even Jeremy.

6 Responses:

Brien said...

I didn't forget to submit a team, I was eliminated in week 1.

As for the picks, everyone knows the first 3-4 weeks are a crap shoot. Vegas doesn't know anything, we don't know anything, and the other assholes betting don't know anything.

By about week 5, we reach the point in the season where Vegas knows everything, we know a little bit, and the other assholes betting don't have a fucking clue (that's how you make money).

J-Red said...

I always use Week 4, but Week 5 is probably even better.

Russell said...

Fortunately for us, the lines are based on what 50% of the bettors will pick, not the actual result that Vegas usually can predict within a point or two. Have you ever watched how perfect the lines are for the NBA? Football's a little more difficult because each score is worth a much higher percentage of the total.

J-Red said...

Vegas is incredible. I can never get over how they get within a point on low-action basketball games like Oklahoma v. Ark. Pine Bluff.

Brien said...

Did you both miss the Tim Donaghy scandal?

J-Red said...

Are you accusing Duke Edsell of shaving points? That would explain all the Battier charges.

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