September 19, 2007

Week 4 CFB Picks

Thanks to Arkansas rising from the dead not once but twice, last week was another winning week, certainly more than I can say about my NFL picks. This week, there is no big out-of-conference showdown, so I'm changing the format here and going around the country via the major conferences. To do so, I've doubled up to 10 picks this week. (Note that some conferences will be included in the future when their conference schedule is in full swing.)

WAKE (-3) over Maryland: MD always struggles stopping the Wake offense, and I don't think Steffy has the poise yet to pull out a road win in a close game, if this even stays close. Remember that basically this same Wake team blew out MD and FSU last year, among others.

Clemson (-7) over NC STATE: Clemson is way more talented.

ALABAMA (-3.5) over Georgia: Arkansas has a much better offense than Georgia, and I think Alabama will still be able to move the ball on Georgia. Nick Saban won't let them forget about those 21 point leads they let slip away.

Kentucky (+6.5) over ARKANSAS: Kentucky now has confidence after the win over Louisville, and Alabama exposed Arkansas' young secondary. Not sure who will win this game, but it should come down to the wire like last week for both teams.

LSU (-15.5) over South Carolina: SC's good, but not good enough to challenge LSU at home. The game will be closer than LSU-VT though.

Big 10:
Penn St. (-2.5) over MICHIGAN: This is a tougher choice than one might think. PSU's 3 victories are over 3 very bad teams, and both of these teams beat ND by about the same score. I think the Penn St. defense and Morelli's experience are too much in the end.

WISCONSIN (-8) over Iowa: Wisconsin hasn't really looked sharp, but Iowa's just bad. Iowa's opponents are a combined 1-8, with that one win over Iowa by Iowa St., which incidentally had lost to I-AA Northern Iowa the week before. I will be shocked if this stays close for long.

Purdue (-13.5) over MINNESOTA: Minnesota is terrible, and Purdue isn't.

PAC 10:
Washington (+7) over UCLA: Nothing makes me feel better about an upset pick than Herbie agreeing. Washington was overmatched last week against a top 10 team. UCLA just collapsed against mediocre 0-2 Utah. I think Washington wins this game.

Oregon (-16.5) over STANFORD: Oregon just beat up on a solid Fresno St. team, look for more of the same against Stanford, doormat of the Pac 10.

Enjoy another wonderful week of CFB!

Last Week: (3-2-0)
Season: (7-4-0)

Spreads taken from Sheridan's Odds, as usual.

4 Responses:

"ben" said...

I am a little hesitant to post a comment about the Michigan game. If I say something about, say, the status of Chad Henne's injury, can we not get serenaded with lectures on Michigan’s health care policies or the history of UM’s Survival Flight?

A spread of -2.5 is a joke and shows that people just refuse to believe that Michigan flatlined this year. I completely agree that PSU is not as good as their wins suggest, but Michigan's defense is really bad. If their D was any good, they would have gotten at least 2 safeties against Notre Dame.

If Mike Hart can play almost every down Saturday, that gives Michigan their best and only chance to win, regardless of who is starting at QB for Michigan.

Penn State is LONG overdue for a victory over Michigan. I think they cover the spread. I will be there cheering for Lloyd among the chorus of boos.

J-Red said...

I think Michifan got it's "get-well" game against ND and will roll through PSU. The guys aren't looking at each other wondering "What the fuck?" anymore.

Russell said...

What, no one has any love for Maryland? It's bad when none of us has confidence in a Terps victory. My comment about the FIU 15-game losing streak and Villanova being I-AA still hold. I hope I'm wrong, but 6-6 could be a good record this year. If we lose at Wake, the games against Rutgers, GT, BC, and FSU will all be very difficult.

Russell said...

The Washington pick looks even better now that Olsen's not starting.

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