December 30, 2007

2008 NFL Draft Order

Keywords: 2008 NFL Draft, 2008 NFL Draft Order, NFL Draft Tiebreakers, NFL Draft Tiebreaker Rules, NFL Draft Picks, NFL Draft Ranks, 2008 NFL Draft Picks, 2008 NFL Draft Order of Selection

Now that the last game of the regular season is complete, here is the draft order for the non-playoff teams.

1) Miami
2) St. Louis
3 or 4) Oakland
3, 4 or 5) Atlanta
4 or 5) Kansas City
6) New York Jets
7) New England (via SF)
8) Baltimore
9) Cincinnati
10) New Orleans
11) Buffalo
12) Denver
13) Carolina
14) Chicago
15) Detroit
16) Arizona
17) Minnesota
18) Houston
19) Philadelphia
22, 23, 24, 25) Dallas (via CLE, see below)
20 to 30) Dependent on playoff results, though note that SF has Indy's pick
31) Super Bowl Loser
32) Super Bowl Winner

Atlanta, Oakland and Kansas City all have the same strength of schedule. Oakland was 0-8 against opponents in common with KC, so Oakland must pick higher than KC. Since Atlanta and Oakland are in different conferences, that tie will be broken with a coin flip. If Atlanta wins the flip, Atlanta picks 3rd, Oakland picks 4th and KC picks 5th. If Oakland wins the coin flip, Atlanta and KC (as teams in different conferences) flip a coin to determine who picks 4th and 5th. Other ties, (Denver beat Buffalo head to head, Chicago was swept by Detroit) were broken using conference/division tiebreakers.)

The draft tiebreakers are as follows:

1) Worst record picks first, and teams are ranked by record, worst to best. A non-playoff team takes priority over playoff teams with the same record.

This is relevant for Cleveland, who is 10-6 and presently has a better record than Tampa Bay and Washington. Unfortunately for Cleveland, a TB or WAS win makes those teams 10-7, and thus worse than Cleveland. Plus, a WAS win makes SEA 10-7, and thus also worse than Cleveland. A JAX win makes PIT 10-7, and thus worse than Cleveland. An SD win makes TEN 10-7, and thus worse than Cleveland. So if JAX, SD, TB and WAS all win, (depending on the divisional round) Cleveland actually drops all the way to 25th despite not even making the playoffs.

2) Ties are broken first with strength of schedule (total number of wins by 16 opponents, or average winning percentage of all 16 opponents, the result is the same)

3) If teams are same division, divisional playoff tiebreakers

4) If teams are same conference, but not same division, conference playoff tiebreakers

5) Coin Flip

[If anyone disagrees with this order or would like to see my Strength of Schedule worksheet, please e-mail [email protected]. I'll send you a copy.]

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